In Spite of His Resignation as Prime Minister, Xanana Gusmão Remains the Epicenter of Timor-Leste’s National Development.

In Spite of His Resignation as Prime Minister, Xanana Gusmão Remains the Epicenter of Timor-Leste’s National Development.

By: Alexandre Rosa Bruno Sarmento

Whether it is acceptable or not, Xanana has resigned from his post as Prime Minister. The resignation would eventually come, but few people expected it would come at this stage. The questions to ask are “Can Timor-Leste really move forward without Xanana at the helm?” and “has this resignation come at the right moment?”

The good news is that in spite of his resignation which saw him moving down the ladder to being just a minister, it is likely that Xanana will continue to play a pivotal role in most of the government’s political agenda. He will continue to be the epicenter, and the main driving force behind most of government’s development policies. Additionally, given his caliber of knowledge, vast array of experiences and leadership, it is inevitable that Xanana would still be consulted in many important and strategic decisions of the government thus making everything revolve around him and flow out from his vision.

It is feasible for Timor-Leste to function without Xanana at the top provided he continues to share inspiration and guidance, even if it is not from the top. This resignation could not have come at a better time than when the present government is halfway through its mandate. It opens up a new beginning in the manner in which government is managed by letting the next generation take over the leadership role while Xanana is exiting in a gradual process. This is a transition of power from the hands of a more experienced senior-influential-historic leader (the so-called generation 75) to a less experienced, less charismatic generation, yet certainly a generation with equal dedication and spirit of service to the nation.

Most segments in Timor-Leste understandably will feel the loss of Xanana’s leadership, particularly those who have enjoyed getting big contracts awarded to them at the mercy of his generous heart but also the general public, common people in rural villages who regarded him, the only big brother, who can bring them out of their poverty. Some veteran’s groups even threatened to take to the road if Xanana’s resignation pushes ahead.

Xanana always listens to his people. He lives and becomes one with them enduring bullets, sunlight, rain and cold in Timor’s mountains and forests for over seventeen years. He gives everything of himself to protect and defend his people. Yet, in spite of his tremendous individual sacrifices that gave impetus to Timor’s independence, he claims “Timor-Leste owes its independence to its people”. Xanana was born to fight and die for his people. He draws his power and strength as a ruler from his people. Vox Populi Vox Dei, Vox Populi Suprema Lex – (the voice of the people is the voice of God, The voice of the people is the highest law) – and the people once again have spoken. They all shouted in chorus: “Maun Boot (Big brother), please, we beg you, don’t step down!. If it’s not you, who else?” Then Xanana responded saying: “My people, if it’s not now, when?”.

Xanana is an excellent leader but he cannot be a leader forever. Nature will eventually take its course. It is due to this fact that Xanana has made his choice. Nonetheless, this is a choice that will give his successor a very hard time because he has set a very high standard of what it means to be a Prime Minister in Timor-Leste. It is one where you have to keep a very delicate balancing act at all time, through provision of equal opportunities to all.

The challenges are numerous, but one that will always haunt a prime minister every night before he sleeps is how best to use the country’s rich petroleum resources in a sustainable fashion to benefit all Timorese, especially those who are poor and feel disenfranchised. What is at stake is how to make development more inclusive through a more participatory process and to avoid a situation where even simple menial works are done by Filipinos, Chinese and Indonesians with Timorese simply becoming a bystander.

Timor-Leste is probably the only country in the world where even toothpicks are imported. If Timor-Leste will have to import most of its consumer goods for many more years to come, for God’s sake, let toothpicks not be one of them. This is a challenge to all Timorese, particularly leaders of private sector and economists who are sometimes too academic and theoretical, lacking pragmatism in their approach.  The toothpick case is but an example of a broader fundamental problem Timor-Leste is facing i.e. the lack of capacity for domestic production, the cost of labor, and its implications for employment and “capital flight” from the non-petroleum sector. A flourishing private sector is a key to unlocking this economic deadlock. The government needs to create a conducive entrepreneurial climate thereby boosting genuine Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) especially in the agriculture sector where more than 70% of the population rely on mere subsistence level. The role of the government must be rather limited to being a facilitator and regulator.

A thriving private sector will be possible when the government considers improving the following areas:

1.      First of all government has to continue investing in basic infrastructure such as roads, bridges, electricity and water supply, and supporting the agriculture sector with irrigation, dams, storage facilities, and extension centers. The investment in this area is a prerequisite for FDI. Previous governments have achieved remarkable results in this area but the planning, execution, monitoring and management of projects have occasionally been deficient due to lack of human resources. Given this scenario there has to be increased training of relevant officers in the area of project management.

2.      Education is the key not only to inclusive development but also to human freedom at personal level. Dr. Amartya Sen, world leading economist and Nobel laureate in economics, defined development as “expansion of human freedom”, freedom to choose from many options in life. This freedom can be widened when a person is well-educated. The government has to advance education system through infrastructure improvement of school buildings and facilities such as libraries and laboratories. It has to continue promoting its scholarship program in highly specialized areas based on a sound analysis and assessment of human resource needs, and it should promote various vocational training centers that could meet the demand for skilled labor. Without a well-qualified workforce, Timorese will continue to be marginalized in various employment opportunities generated by state and private investment.

3.      Agrarian law reform, agrarian regulation and land ownership are priority issues. The law is temporarily pending in the parliament without any serious pressure to push it through. Land disputes resulting from ambiguous ownership will become a great impediment to investment.

4.      The current one stop shop for business registration “SERVE” is a good initiative but is still complicated in many ways. Business registration for foreign companies will still have to go through many layers in SEPFOPE, Foreign Affairs and Immigration thereby making it more than a one-stop-shop experience. Simplifying bureaucratic processes will help boost the Investment in Timor-Leste.

5.      Facilitating access to financial services: strengthening national rural banking that will cater for the financing needs of the farmers and Timor-Leste’s population that live in the rural areas.  This will facilitate credit access for farmers and enable them to participate more actively in the trickledown effect of combined public-private investment.

Finally, Xanana is the principle author of the current long term Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030. It is again, not only a plan of the government but a plan of the people because Xanana himself went around 65 sub-districts (administrative posts) again bracing heat and rains in 2010 to consult and listen to his people before finalizing the plan in mid-2011. Since he will lead the ministry of Planning and Strategic Investment, the implementation of this plan will be in his hands and therefore he will still be indispensable and truly become the epicenter from which everything else emanates. 

“Pivot no Rebalance”: EUA nia Polítika Externa mai Ázia

Tags

Asia, EUA, Pivot, Politika Externa, Rebalance

“Pivot no Rebalance”: EUA nia Polítika Externa mai Ázia
Guteriano Neves

Ázia’s Rise
“Here, we see the future. As the world’s fastest-growing region-and home to more than have the global economy—the Ázia Pacific is critical to achieving my highest priority: creating jobs and opportunity for the American people. With most of the world’s nuclear powers and some half of humanity, Ázia will largely define whether the century ahead will be marked by conflict or cooperation, needless suffering or human progress.” Presidenti EUA, Barrack Obama iha ninia diskursu ba Parlementu Australia, 17 de Novembru, 2011.
Introdusaun
Kresimentu ekonomia iha Ázia hetan atensaun barak hosi parte hotu, no altera relasaun polítika iha nivel internasional. Dezde Obama tama ba Casa Branca iha 2009, polítika externa Obama nian foka ba rejiaun Ázia. Polítika ida ne’e ikus mai koñesidu ho “Rebalance” ou “Pivot;” offisialmente fo sai ba públiku iha 17 de November 2011, iha diskursu Prezidenti Obama nian iha Parlamentu Australia nia oin. Polítika externa ida ne’e intensifika liu tan dinamika iha rejiaun laran, hamosu diskonfiansa entre Xina ho EUA iha rejiaun, no obriga pais sira iha rejiaun laran atu jere interese pais boot rua ho didiak, no oinsa atu asegura sira nia interese nasional rasik. Artigu badak ida ne’e koko atu esplika polítika externa ida ne’e no oinsa reasaun hosi rejiaun laran.
Importansia Rejiaun Ázia
Rejiaun Ázia mak sai nu’udar makina ba kresimentu ekonomia mundial nian, wainhira krize finanseiru sei nafatin afekta país dezenvolvidu sira iha Europeia no Norte Amerikanu. Relatório Banku Mundial nian, East Ázia Pacific 2014 nian subliña katak país sub-dezenvolvidu sira iha Ázia Oeste no Pasífiku ho susesu liu iha periodu turbulansia finanseiru nian iha veraun (Summer) 2013 nian no kresimentu ekonomia rejiaun nian iha 2013 atinzi 7.2% no iha 2013, kontribui mais de metade hosi kresimentu ekonomia ekonomia mundial nian” (Banku Mundial; 2014; 4). Banku Dezenvolvimentu Áziaktiku nota katak ekonomia Ázia nian aumenta iha dekade hirak ikus mai ne’e. Iha dekade 1980 no 1990, kresimentu GDP Ázia nian aumenta 6% kada tinan iha Ázia Oeste, no kontinua aumenta 6% kada tinan hosi 1999 to’o 2006 (ADB; 5). ADB identifika faktor fatores hirak ne’ebé kontribui ba ne’e; aumenta rendimentu ne’ebé rezulta iha númeru pobreza tun, kapital ne’ebé tama aumenta, investimentu seitor privadu no públiku aumenta, aumenta iha investimentu no komersiu iha rejiaun laran, no aumenta populasaun iha sidade, no mos expansaun iha klase mediu.
Banku Dezenvolvimentu Áziatiku, iha 2011, publika relatório ida ho titulu “Ázia 2050: Realizing the Ázian Century. Mensajem jeral hosi dokumentu ida ne’e mak sekulu 21 sei sai nu’udar sekulu Ázia nian; iha ne’ebé Ázia mak lidera kresimentu ekonomia nian. Prezidenti ADB nian, Haruhiko Kuroda, iha prefasiu hateten katak, sentru ekonomia mundial agora nian, muda mai fali ona Ázia atu dudu dezenvolvimentu ekonomia. Iha nota optimizmu oitoan, nia halo predisaun katak, to’o iha meiu sekulu ida ne’e, metade hosi produsaun mundial nian sei mai hosi Ázia.
Maibe rejiaun Ázia laos deit fornese promesa lubuk ida. Ida ne’e fornese dezafiu lubuk ida, liliu haree hosi parte seguransa. Rejiaun ida ne’e nuudar rejiaun ida ne’ebe iha pais lubuk ida mak iha kapasidade nuclear. Sira ne’e mak Xina, Korea du Norte, Pakistaun no India. Tensaun iha Korea Peninsula ne’ebe involve interese pais boot sira dala barak hamosu tensaun as iha nivel polítika internasional. Kestaun seluk mak konflitu kona ba fronteira maritima entre Filipina, Vietnam no mos Xina. Ida ne’e mos sai ameasa ba interese EUA.
Iha aspetu ekonomia, maski rejiaun ida ne’e esperiensia ona kresimentu ekonomia as, iha tempu hanesan, dizigualidade entre kiak no riku, entre area rural no urbana, entre feto no mane mos amenta luan. Mudansa klimatika mos sai ameasa ba rejiaun ida ne’ebe bele kria instabilidade iha rejiaun laran, bele hamosu krize umanitaria. Ida ne’e mos rekonhese hosi organizasaun sira hanesan Banku Dezenvolvimentu Áziatiku.

Dinamika Ázia no Polítika Externa EUA nian
Dezde Prezidenti EUA, Barrack Obama tama ba Casa Branca, prioridade importante ida ne’ebé Prezidenti Obama hakarak introduz mak mudansa iha orientasaun polítika externa EUA nian. Obama hakarak orienta polítika externa Estadus Unidus nian ba rejiaun Ázia, no nia komitmentu atu intensifika liu tan EUA ninia prezensa iha rejiaun ida ne’e. Ho ida ne’e, Obama introduz polítika externa foun “Ázia’s Pivot” ou ikus mai mos ema balu konhese ho “Rebalance.” Liu hosi polítika ida ne’e, EUA hakarak aumenta ninia prezensa iha aspetu ekonomia, militar no diplomatiku iha rejiaun ne’e. Polítika ida ne’e hamosu reasaun oioin iha rejiaun laran. Analista balu haree katak polítika ida ne’e hanesan realizasaun hosi EUA kona ba importansia hosi rejiaun Ázia Pasifiku ba interese EUA nian. Maibe laos oitoan mos mak konkorda katak polítika ida ne’e hanesan estratejia ida atu hatan ba modernizasaun no expansaun militar Xina nian (Reis; 2014).
Polítika ida ne’e hanesan mudansa boot ida iha polítika externa EUA nian hosi administrasaun antes, George W. Bush. Entre peritus iha area relasaun internasional sira, iha persepsaun forte katak dezde funu iha Vietnam, EUA hamenus ninia atensaun makaas ba rejiaun ida ne’e. Antes Obama nia tempu, polítika externa EUA nian orienta barak liu ba Mediu Oriente, partikularmente funu iha Iraq no Afghanistaun no mos konflitu entre Izrael no Palestina. Funu rua ne’e iha impaktu makaas ba arkitektura polítika externa no gastus EUA nian. Tanba ne’e, iha Obama nia tempu, atensaun ba rejiaun ida ne’e aumenta.
Atensaun ida ne’e refleta iha dokumentu importante iha polítika externa EUA nian, konesidu ho naran “National Security Strategy.” Importante atu nota mos katak NSS nuudar dokumentu ida ne’ebe fo sai kona ba ameasa ba interese EUA nian, no oinsa atu responde ba ameasa sira ne’e. Ida ne’e inklui ameasa externa. Tuir dokumentu ne’e”
“Asia’s dramatic economic growth has increased its connection to America’s future prosperity, and its emerging centers of influence make it increasingly important. We have taken substantial steps to deepen our engagement in the region, through regional organizations, new dialogues, and high-level diplomacy. The United States has deep and enduring ties with the countries of the region, including trade and investment that drive growth and prosperity on both sides of the Pacific, and enhancing these ties is critical to our efforts to advance balanced and sustainable growth and to doubling U.S. exports. We have increasing security cooperation on issues such as violent extremism and nuclear proliferation. We will work to advance these mutual interests through our alliances, deepen our relationships with emerging powers, and pursue a stronger role in the region’s multilateral architecture, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and the East Ázia Summit.”
Prezidenti EUA, iha ninia diskursu ba Parlamentu Australia, iha loron 17 de Novembru 2011, hateten,
“After a decade in which we fought two wars that cost us dearly, in blood and treasure, the United States is turning our attention to the vast potential of the Ázia Pacific region…As the world’s fastest growing region—and home to more than half the global economy—the Asia Pacific is critical to achieving my highest priority and that is creating jobs and opportunity for the American people. With most of the world’s nuclear powers and some half of humanity, Asia will largely define whether the century ahead will be marked by conflict or cooperation, needless suffering or human progress.
As president, I have therefore made a deliberate and strategic decision—as a Pacific nation, the United States will play a larger and long-term role in shaping this region and its future, by upholding core principles and in close partnership with allies and friends….As we end today’s wars, I have directed my national security team to make our presence and mission in Ázia Pacific a top priority.”

Iha tempu ne’ebe Prezidenti Obama fo sai estratejia ida ne’e, Sekretariu Estadu EUA nian, Hillary Clinton, iha tempu ne’eba hakerek artigu ho titulu America’s Pacific Century, publika iha Journal Foreign Policy lori esplika kona ba saida mak “Pivot” no “Rebalance” ninia signifika.
“As the war in Iraq winds down and America begins to withdraw from Afghanistan, the United States stands at a pivot point. Over the last 10 years, we have allocated immense resources to those two theatres. In the next 10 years, we need to be smart and systematic about where we invest time and energy, so that we put ourselves in the best position to sustain our leadership, secure our interests and advance our values. One of the most important tasks of American statecraft over the next decade will therefore be to lock in a substantially increased investment—diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise—in the Asia-Pacific region.”

Hanesan esplika iha Hillary Clinton nia artigu esplika katak haforsa kresimentu ekonomia iha Ázia nian no ninia nuudar asuntu estratejiku ba EUA. Hanesan babain, merkadu livre sei fornese oportunidade boot ba EUA ba investimentu, komersiu no asesu ba teknolojia. Ho klaru, nia hateten katak kresimentu ekonomia iha EUA sei depende ba rejiaun ida ne’e. Relatorio ida hosi Congressional Research Service mos fo sai katak durante tinan dahuluk mandate Hillary Clinton nian nuudar Sekretaria Estadu, nia halo vizita ba rai liur hamueutk 183. 19.7% hosi vizita sira ne’e, mai rejiaun Ázia Pasifiku.

Iha praktika diplomatiku nian, iha atividade diplomatiku lubuk ida. Vizita nivel alto hosi eis Sekretariu Estadu EUA nian, Hillary Clinton, vizita hosi Sekretariu Estadu atual John Kerry no mos Prezidenti Obama rasik, manifesta kompromisu ida ne’e. Hillary Clinton hili rejiaun ida ne’e nuudar ninia vizita official ba dahuluk wainhira sai nuudar Sekretariu Estadu. Tuir analista polítika externa EUA nian sira iha Washington D.C., desizaun ida ne’e refleta katak Administrasaun Obama nian sei fo atensaun barak ba rejiaun ida ne’e (Muni; 2014; 4).

Iha aspetu militar nian, EUA nia aumenta ninia prezensa militar liu hosi destaka forsa iha Australia, kooperasaun foun ho Filipina, no intensifika liu tan kordenasaun militar ho Japaun no Korea du Sul (Mishral 2014; 150). Iha aspetu ekonomia, esforsu EUA nian atu susesu iha akordu Transpacific Partnership (TPP) hanesan elementu ekonomia hosi polítika ida ne’e. Partisipasaun ativa hosi EUA iha forum oioin iha rejiaun ne hanesan ASEAN Defence Minister Meeting no mos East Ázia Summit hola parte iha estratejia boot liu EUA nian iha rejiaun ida ne’e.

Reasaun iha Rejiaun laran
Introdusaun polítika ida ne’e hamosu reasaun oioin iha rejiaun laran. Parte balu haree katak introudaun polítika ida ne’e laos buat foun ida iha polítika externa EUA nian. Maski nune’e, iha nivel polítika no retorika polítika, diskusaun kona ba orientasaun Polítika externa iha nivel alto intensifika makaas wainhira Obama anunsia polítika ida ne’e.
Introdusaun polítika ida ne’e hamosu reasaun oioin iha rejiaun laran. Maski Washington dala barak fo sai katak polítika ida ne’e laos atu kontra prezensa Xina ne’ebe kontinua aumenta iha rejiaun ida ne’e, Xina sei nafatin iha diskonfia makaas ba polítika ida ne’e. Beijing haree katak polítika externa Pivot no Rebalance atu kontra interese Xina nian iha rejiaun ne’e. Xina haree katak polítika externa pivot, ho destakamentu militar EUA nian, hanesan dalan ida atu haleu Xina no halo kloot espasu ba Xina. Ba Beijing, Polítika ida ne’e refleta mentalidade Guerra Fria ne’ebe EUA sei iha.

Australia no Nova Zelandia maski iha relasaun espesial ho EUA, sira rasik mos iha relasaun komersial estratejiku ho Xina. Xina nuudar parseiru komersiu boot Australia nian no Xina mak merkadu boot liu hotu ba exportasaun produtu EUA nian. Tanba ne’e, Australia koko jere interese pais rua ne’e nian hodi mantein relasaun diak entre Australia ho sira. Filipina, tanba iha hela konflitu ho Xina kona ba Tasi Ketan, haree intensifikasaun prezensa EUA nian iha rejiaun ida ne’e hanesan dalan diak ida. Sa tan, Filipina ho EUA rasik iha ona kooperasaun militar ba tinan naruk.
ASEAN rasik seidauk klaru kona ba ninia resposta kollektivu. Em jeral, pais sira iha ASEAN haree Xina nia prezensa hanesan oportunidade, maibe mos sira mos koko atu labele husik influensia Xina nian aumenta ba bebeik iha rejiaun ne’e. Sa tan, istorikamente, Xina ladun iha relasaun diak ho pais sira iha rejiaun ne’e. Bele dehan, ba maioria nasaun sira iha ASEAN, inkuli Indonesia, sira prefere liu EUA duke Xina; maibe sira mos konsente katak Xina, ho ninia kresimentu ekonomia agora dadaun, fornese mos oportunidade iha area komersiu. Indonezia rasik nia reasaun katak polítika ida ne’e laos atu hatan ba Xina, maibe nuudar realizasaun ida katak rejiaun ida ne’e, liliu ASEAN rasik, nuudar rejiaun importante ba EUA nia interese. Iha tempu hanesan, sira haree polítika pivot hanesan oportunidade ida hotu; maibe mos bele sai ameasa tanba bele hamosu tensaun iha rejiaun laran. Indonesia partikularmente, iha preokupasaun ho aspetu militar hosi estratejia ida ne’e tanba bele provoka tensaun (Anwar; 2013).
Iha nivel makro, ita haree polítika pivot hamosu reasaun mixtura iha rejiaun laran. Xina, rejiaun ho kontribusaun kresimentu ekonomia as liu iha rejiaun, haree polítika ida ne’e hanesan reasaun EUA nian ba Xina nia interese. Maski EUA rasik, iha dada lia dala ruma ho sira, no prova hosi deklaran offisial sira hateten katak polítika pivot no rebalance laos atu responde ba Xina, polítika ida ne’e labele hamos diskonfiansa Xina nian. Iha parte seluk, ho kresimentu ekonomia ne’ebe Xina iha, no aumenta importansia hosi Xina ba iha rejiaun ne’e, signifika katak pais sira iha rejiaun ne’e tenki matenek atu jere interese pais boot rua ne’e.

Konkluzaun
Nuudar pais boot, ho ninia rekursu enermu, polítika saida deit mak EUA foti, mudansa iha ninia atensaun no prioridade polítika externa bele atera estrutura polítika iha nebe deit. Dezde 2001 too agora, ho akontesimentu 9/11, ida ne’e forma EUA nia orientasaun polítika externa ba liu Mediu Oriente. Administrasaun Obama nian hakarak orienta fali polítika externa mai rejiaun Ázia Pasifiku. Ho polítika ida ne’e, signifika katak pais sira iha rejiaun ne’e tenki jere sira nia interese ho matenek liu tan, no koko atu mantein balansu iha relasaun entre Xina ho EUA.

Benefísiu g7+ ba Timor-Leste

Tags

Aid Effectiveness, Foreign Aid, Fragile States, g7+, New Deal, Post 2015 Development Agenda, PSF, Timor-Leste

Benefísiu g7+ ba Timor-Leste

Helder da Costa, PhD

Sekretariu Jeral g7+

Introdusaun

Maske foin restaura nia independensia iha tinan 13 nia laran, Timor-Leste nia prezensa no lideransa iha nivel global hetan ona rekonesimentu boot tebes husi komunidade internasional sira. Iha nivel nasional, Timor-Leste mak lidera grupu g7+ (nasaun frajil no pos-konflitu nebe hamutuk 20) husi 2010-2014. TL nia lideransa neé hetan mos apoiu masimu husi Presidente RDTL, Parlamentu Nasional, Primeiru Ministru, Governu no komponente Sosiedade Sivil hanesan kauza nasional ida.
Durante tinan 13 nia laran, prosesu ba harii dame no harii estadu (peacebuilding and statebuilding) iha Timor-Leste rasik hasoru desafiu oin-oin, maibe ita nia vontade hakarak fahe experiensia ba nasaun frájil sira boot tebes. Ohin loron Timor oan sira sente orgulho moris hakmatek no determinadu iha sira nia soberania. Timor oan sira agora moris iha ambiente trankuilidade nia laran. Ita nia ambiente seguransa neébe hakmatek, nakonu ho optimismu no konfiansa hodi hakat ba future. Ida konsidera nudar pasu boot ida hodi hakat ba prosesu dezenvolvimentu sosial, ekonomia no politika iha Timor-Leste.
Tempu to’o ona atu Timor-Leste hare ba oin ho Planu Estratéjiku Dezenvolvimentu (PED) hodi trasa nia polítika dezenvolvimentu ida apropriadu hodi garante paz, fornese uma, be moos, saneamentu, aihan ba Timor oan tomak.
Timor-Leste (nudar eis-xefe ka Prezidente g7+ nian ba nasaun ruanulu) agora sai hanesan Uma Nain (host country) ba g7+ tuir Komunikadu Lome iha fulan Maiu 2014) no Resolusaun Konseilu Ministru Timor-Leste iha loron 19 Dezembru 2014, disidi Dili sai nudar Kuartel Jeral ba Sekretariadu g7+. Mekanismu ida neé identiku/hanesan mós Indonesia sai Uma Nain ba Sekretariadu ASEAN iha Jakarta, no Fiji mak Uma Nain ba Sekretariadu Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) iha Suva. Republika Sierra Leone mak agora assume kargu hanesan Xefe ka Prezidente g7+ nian nebe serve Estadu Membru hamutuk nasaun 20: Afghanistan, Burundi, Republika Sentral Afrikana, Chad, Comoros, Cote dÍvoire, Republika Demokratika Congo, Guine, Gunie-Bissau, Haiti, Liberia, Papua New Guinea, Sao Tome e Principe, Sierra Leone , Solomon Islands, Somalia, Sudan do Sul, Timor-Leste, Togo no Yemen.

Oinsa g7+ Estabelese?

Sadere metin ba Voluntarismu, Solidaridade no Kooperasaun nudar prinsipiu fukun, konsege fanu nasaun 40 resin mak mai partisipa iha konferensia bot ida iha Dili, ne’ebe halao iha fulan Abril 2010. Representante sira husi nasaun frájil sira hanesan Burundi, Chad, Republika Afrika Sentral, Republika Demokratika Kongo, Liberia, Sudan do Sul, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, no Timor-Leste rasik nudar uma nain, hatudu sira nia seriedade no kompromisu bot hodi ofisialmente forma grupu g7+. Konferensia ne’e mos konsidera nudar momentum tranzisaun importante ida ba Timor-Leste, tanba antes tinan 2010, Republika Demokratika Kongo mak lidera grupu serbisu kona ba nasaun frajil sira, maibe iha konferensia Dili, kargu ne’e mos entrega kedas ba Timor-Leste, no Ministra Finansas, Emilia Pires, mak lidera grupu g7+ to’o fulan Maio 2014.
Iha biban Konferensia Dili ne’e, estabelesementu g7+ hamosu mos dokumentu istóriku ida hanaran Deklarasaun Dili (Dili Declaration). Deklarasaun ne’e bolu atensaun maka’as ba espiritu solidaridade entre nasaun frajil sira, no marka komitmentu hodi serbisu hamutuk (koletivu) iha g7+ nia laran hodi fahe experiensia, dezafiu, susesu no failansu sira ne’ebe iha no hasoru, hodi nune’e nasaun g7+ sira bele hakat sai lalais husi faze frajilidade ba faze resiliensia. Tan ba ne’e nasaun membru g7+ sira presiza hasoru malu bebeik hodi diskuti kona ba area importante 4: (i) Governasaun (ii) Dezenvolvimentu Ekonomiku (foku ba rekursus naturais, hamenus kiak-mukit, kriasaun oportunidade ba kampu serbisu), (iii) Dezenvolvimentu umanu no sosial, no ikus liu (iv) area siguransa (foku iha resolusaun konflitu, rekonsiliasaun, inklusaun sosial, dialog kona-ba hari’i dame no ordem siguransa. Nasaun sira ne’e kompremetidu tebes atu hasoru malu bebeik ho apoiu husi komunidade internasional sira.
Baseia ba konferensia Dili, sorumutu Ministerial g7+ nian hahu halao ona kada tinan no tuir rotasaun ba nasaun sira ne’ebe mak pronto hakarak sai uma nain. Hahu husi Juba, Sudaun du Sul, sai uma nain dahuluk ba Sorumutu Ministerial Grupu g7+ nian iha fulan Otubru 2011; tuir fali Port Au Prince, Haiti iha fulan Novembru 2012; no Lome, Togo iha tinan 2014. Reuniaun ikus iha Togo ne’e, hamosu Deklarasaun Lome, ne’ebe ho unanimidade adopta Karta g7+ (g7+ Charter), Primeiru Ministru Timor-Leste, Sua Excelencia Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão, nomeiadu nudar Eminent Person & Consultative Council Member ba Grupu g7+, iha biban hanesan Excelensia Sra. Emilia Pires (Eis-Presidente ba Grupu g7+) mos hetan fiar nudar Enviadu Spesial (Special Envoy) ba Grupu g7+ nian. Laos ne’e deit, maibe Dili mos hili sai nudar Sekretariadu permanente (Kuartel Jeral) ba Grupu g7+ nian. No Ministru Finansas Sierra Leone nian, Excelencia Dr. Kaifala Marah, sai nudar Presidente foun ba Grupu g7+ durante tinan rua (agora dadauk).

Tanba sá mak Timor-Leste hetan fiar husi nasaun seluk hodi lidera Grupu g7+, no benefisiu saida mak Timor-Leste sei hetan?

Atu responde ba pergunta ida ne’e, hakerek nain hakarak fo nia observasaun badak ida kona-ba konjuntura politika dezenvolvimentu global relasiona ho asistensia externa sira ne’ebe ezisti, no valores internasionais sira ne’ebe mak ema hanaran kontratu sosial internasional nian (international social contract), hafoin koalia kona ba benefisiu husi g7+ ba Timor-Leste.
Atualmente doadores internasional barak laos fo sira nia asistensia umanitariu deit, maibe sira mos hafalun metin ho sira nia interese sosial, no ekonomia liu husi sira nia exportasaun, no determinasaun politika, ekonomika ka persuasaun politika (political persuasion) ruma ba nasaun resipientes (nasaun sira ne’ebe mak simu tulun). Jeralmente, asistensia externa sira ne’e hahu tiha ona molok Segundu Gerra Mundial (II World War) remata. Iha 1944, Bretton Woods forma IBRD (pioneiru husi Banku Mundial), no mos FMI-Fundu Monetariu Internasional (International Monetary Fund-IMF).
Iha 1948, asistensia bilateral Estadus Unidus Amerikanu (USA) hahu ho estabelesimentu Administrasaun Kopersaun Ekonomia (Economic Cooperation Administration) ka ema bolu Marshall Plan, planu ida ne’ebe hodi tulun rekonstrue fali Europa Osidental husi influensia politika komunismu Europa Oriental nian. Iha dekade 1960, programa asistensia externa Europa nian dezenvolve makas no iha pozisaun ida atu fo asistensia desenvolvimentu ba nasaun sira, liliu iha kontinente Afrika no Asia nian. Wainhira prosesu dekolonizasaun iha Afrika no Asia avansa dadaun, França ho Reinu Unidu mos lansa dadauk sira nia programa boot kona-ba asistensia ba sira nia eis-kolonia sira. Maibe, asistensia hira ne’e ema uza sala ba interese seluk, hanesan sosa ekipamentu militare, no seluk-seluk tan. Iha area sira dezenvolvimentu nian liuliu kona ba hamenus kiak, konseitu kresimentu 6% nesesita atu bele garante nasaun sub dezenvolvidu sira hodi kombate kiak. Atu atinji nivel kresimentu ida ne’e, sira apela 0.7 pursentu GNP (Gross National Product) ou Produtu Nasional Brutu (PNB) husi nasaun desenvolvidu. Entaun iha meta ida ne’e, iha nasaun lima deit mak konsege alkansa, hanesan: Dinamarka, Holanda, Suesia, Noruega no Luxemburgo, no hahu iha prinsipu dekade 1980, nivel asistensia komesa tun husi 0.36 husi PNB ba 0.22 pursentu PNB.
Iha dekade 1990, ema barak bolu atensaun makas ba koordenasaun asistensia nebe efikaz liu. Estudu ida halu husi Banku Mundial (1993) konklui katak ownership husi govenru, administrasaun nebe forte, no kapasidade institutional, no politika no jestaun ba setor publiku, kordenasaun nebe diak husi diadores sira atu hadiak sira nia pratika bisnis sai hanesan konkluzaun importantes ba review nebe sira halu. Tanba ne’e hahu iha Roma, Italia, tinan 2003 hala’o Forum dahuluk kona ba asistensia externa, tuir kedas ho sorumutu daruak iha Paris, França, iha tinan 2005 hamosu Deklarasaun Paris ne’ebe foka liu ba prinsipiu lima hanesan; nain rasik (ownership); alinhamentu (alignment); jere rezultadu (managing for results) no responsibilidade mutual (mutual accountability). Tuir fali mai iha Accra, Ghana, iha tinan 2008 mak hanesan forum ba datoluk, ne’ebe hasai Agenda Accra nian ba Asaun (Agenda for Action-AAA) ne’ebe fo mahon atu hamosu konseitu hari’i dame no hari’i estadu (peacebuilding no statebuilding). Forum Busan, iha Korea Du Sul, iha tinan 2011 mak hanesan sorumutu ba dahat nian, iha momentu ida ne’e nasaun barak, inklui Timor-Leste hola parte hodi aseita Akordu Foun (New Deal) ne’ebe fo importansia ba nasaun frajil sira iha sumbrina Grupu g7+ atu determina rasik sira nia lideransa liu husi sira nia metodu aprosimasaun iha nivel nasional.

Tuir mai mak faktu hirak ne’ebe sai motivasaun ba hamosu Akordu Foun entre nasaun frajil ho
parseiru siara ba dezenvolvimntu nian:
• Ema hamutuk 1.5 biliaun maka agora dadauk moris iha nasaun ne’ebe afetadu husi konflitu no frajil;
• Nasaun frajil no pos-konflitu faila atu alkansa Objetivu Dezenvolvimentu Milenium (ODM) ka MDG’s;
• Kuaze menus husi 70 % nasaun hirak ne’ebe frajil hare no hatene rasik ona konflitu, hahu husi tinan 1989;
• Atu bele halo transformasaun governasaun basiku, sei presiza tinan 20-40 atu realiza.
• 30 % husi Asistensia Ofisial ba Dezenvolvimentu (Overseas Development Assistance-ODA) gasta iha kontestu ne’ebe frajil no hetan impaktu makas husi konflitu;
• Maneira serbisu iha nasaun hirak ne’ebe frajil presiza tebes atu hadiak;
• Iha pratika dala barak parseiru ba dezenvolvimentu sira hakat liu tiha interese nasional no ator nasional sira. Tan ne’e presiza lideransa no aprosimasaun nasional husi nasaun frajil sira iha Akordu Foun (New Deal) ne’ebe lidera husi g7+. Akordu ne’e mosu nudar padraun no modalidade hodi dialogu ho parseiru ba dezenvolvimentu sira.

Benefisiu ba Timor-Leste nia lideransa iha Grupu g7+ mak tuir mai ne’e:

• Hakarak sai lalais husi faze frajilidade hodi hakat ho fiar an ba iha faze dezenvolvimentu (duni tuir nasaun sira nebe iha rendimentu as);
• Maske jeografikamente Timor-Leste nasaun ki’ik ida, maibe nia lideransa liu husi Primeiru Ministru Sua. Excelensia Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão, Ministra Finansas Excelencia Emilia Pires, no suporta husi Sekretariadu g7+ nebe base iha Dili durante tinan 4 (2010-2014), konsege halibur nasaun frajil sira hodi sai forsa determinante ida iha for a global, liliu iha komunidade komunidade internasional sira nia oin.
• “Nada Sobre Nos Sem Nós” (“Nothing About Us Without Us”), ne’e mak lia fuan inspiradu tebes ba membru Grupu g7+ hodi fiar an hakat ba oin ho asaun koletivu ida forte. Iha interpretasaun ida simples, lia fuan ne’e hakarak alina Grupu g7+ nia ezizensia forte parseiru desenvolvimentu, no autor global sira katak: sei la iha resultadu buat ida, wainhira imi la involve ami iha laran. Liliu iha prosesu ba debates interesse
• desenzovilmentu ba nasaun frajil no pos-konflitu sira.
• Timor-Leste nia lideransa, kredibilidade, integridade rekuinesementu husi nasaun bot sira, no agensia internasional sira sai ona hanesan “marka” ka “brand” ida ne’ebe halo ema respeitu no reseiu.
• Timor-Leste fahe ona nia esperiensia sira oinsa atu jere jestaun rekursus naturais, jestaun finansas publika, reforma seguransa ne’ebe sai hanesan referensia ba istória susesu (success story).
• Atu ezekuta programas g7+ nian, iha kolaborasaun boot entre g7+ ho Ministériu Negosiu Estranjeiru (MNEC) Timor-Leste nian. Ulun boot MNEC sempre partisipa iha sorumutu g7+ nian iha rai seluk.

New Deal/Akordu Foun

Akordu Foun ka New Deal ne’ebe lansa iha Busan, Korea du Sul iha fulan Dezembru 2011, fo tensaun liu ba assistensia dezenvolvimentu sira ba estadu frajil no pos-konflitu sira. Akordu foun hanesan arkitektura dahuluk ba asistensia esterna iha historia nasaun sira ne’ebe afetadu husi konflitus. Akordu Foun temi ne’e inklui pilar tolu iha akronim tuir mai: PSG (Peacebuilding and Statebuilding); FOCUS no TRUST, bele hare’e iha diagram tuir mai:

Fonte: New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States, Sekretariadu g7+ (2014)

Akordu Foun hanesan mekanismu foun ida ne’ebe foka liu ba planemaneto ne’ebe lidera husi nasaun frajil sira rasik no tuir ida-ida nia kontestu ne’ebe involve liu poder lokal, rejional no nasional, parseiru ba dezenvolvimentu sira, sosiedade sivil no setor privadu. Progresu ne’ebe hahu mosu iha Timor-Leste liliu implementasaun New Deal nian mak tuir mai ne’e:
• Doador sira komesa alina ba Planu Esttratejiku Deznvolvimentu (PED) tuir prinsipiu Akordu Foun (New Deal);
• Programa Ajensia Nasoesn Unidas sira nian iha Timor-Leste sei koresponde ho objetivu oin lima iha PSG nian, ezemplu hanesan: Australia nia inisiativu ba utiliza sistema governu Timor-Leste (country system) hodi serbisu hamutuk ho Ministeriu Finansas.
• Uniaun Europeia mos hahu tuir ona uza sistema ida hanesan; Doador sira hahu uza Sistema Informasaun ba Jestaun Ajudus (Aid Information Management System-AIMS) nebe dezenvolve husi Unidade ba Jestaun Parseirus Dezenvolvimentu-DPMU nian iha Ministeriu Finansas hodi produs Livru Numeru 5 ba Orsamentu Jeral Estadu Timor-Leste nian;
• Lideransa hosi lina Ministeriu sira hahu forte ona.

Perspektiva g7+ nian kona ba Ajenda Dezenvolvimentu pos-2015

MDG (Millenium Development Goals) nebe atu expira ona iha fim de 2015 kobre deit objetivu desenvolvimentu 8 nebe limitadu. Iha dekade liu ba, mundu tomak hamosu konsensu ida katak visaun global ba dezenvolvimentu 2015-2030 presija tebes.
Iha Fevereiru 2012 Nasoens Unidas kria Painel Altu Nivel (High Leve Panel, HLP) nebe kompostu husi ema eminentes iha mundu hamutuk nain 26 nebe lidera husi Eis- Presidente Indonesia SBY, PM Reinu Unidu David Cameroon no Prezidente Liberia, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf hodi halu konsulta ho komunidades iha mundu tomak. Ministra Finansas Timor-Leste, Emilia
Pires mos hola parte iha Painel Altu Nivel neé. HLP nia relatóriu nebe submete ba SJ ONU Ban Ki Moon iha Maiu 2013 sai hanesan referensia ida ba Objectivu Dezenvolvimentu Sustentavel (Sustainable Development Goal) ba 2015-2030.
Timor-Leste ho nia papel importante konsege halibur nasaun 45 iha Fevereiru 2013 husi Asia, Pasifik, Afrika, Europa ho EUA hodi hamosu dokumentu importante ida ho naran Dili Consensus (Konsensu Dili) nebe sai hanesan referensia boot ba debates iha nivel internasional kona ba Ajenda Dezenvolvimentu Pos-2015.
Iha Nova Yorke, Grupu de Trabalho Abertu (Open Working Group, OWG) nebe kompostu husi nasoens besik atus ida resin halu sira nia servisu no hatoo ona Relatoriu ba SJ ONU Ban Ki Moon. Iha relatoriu ne, sira deskreve 17 Metas no 169 Alvo (Targets) para bele halu debate iha Assembleia Jeral Nações Unidas iha Setembru 2014.
Grupu g7+ fiar katak: “Laiha Paz Sei Laiha Dezenvolvimento; no Laiha Dezenvolvimentu bele Laiha Paz” (“there can be no peace without development and there can be no development without peace). Tanba neé, iha sorumutu paralelu ida (g7+ side event) iha Nova Yorke iha 22 Setembru 2014 (PM Xanana Gusmão mos hola parte hanesan key note speaker), g7+ tenta atu influensia ONU para iha objetivu ida (Goal # 16) – Building Peaceful Societies and Effective Institutions (harii sosiedade nebe moris iha dame no hametin institusaun nebe efikas) sai hanesan objetivu prinsipal ida ba Ajenda Dezenvolvimentu Pos-2015 nian atu bele lori mudansas/ progresu. Tuir g7+ nia perspektiva, se objetivu # 16 mak la inklui iha Agenda Dezenvolvimentu Pos-2015, paízes frájeis sira sei enfrenta dezafius boot iha tinan sanulu resin lima tuir mai, katak sira sei hela iha kotuk (left behind) dala ida tan.
Sekretáriu Jeral Nasoens Unidas, Ban Ki Moon emiti tiha ona Relatóriu Synthesis ida iha Dezembru 2014 ho títulu: ”The Road to Dignity by 2030: Ending Poverty, Tansforming All Lives and Protecting the Planet” (Dalan ba Dignidade toó 2030: Hakotu Mukit, Transforma Moris Hotu no Proteje Planeta). Nuneé, Nasoens Unidas mós sei presija identifika indicadores aplikáveis nebe bele akolha, kompara no analiza. Iha tinan ida ne’e negosiasoens sei hala’o iha Nova Yorke atu desidi kona ba metas no objetivus Desenvolvimentu Sustentável (Sustainable Development Goals) husi 2015 ba 2030. Timor-Leste liu husi nia Misaun Permanente iha Nova Yorke, liu-liu Embaixadora Sofia Borges ho nia konsistensia defende makas Goal # 16 ho Estadu Membrus g7+ sira seluk , inklui lideransa Sierra Leone (hanesan Prezidente g7+ nian) atu bele asegura Objetivu ida neé tama iha ajenda Dezenvolvimentu ba Pos-2015.

Kooperasaun Frájil ba Frájil (F ba F)

Ho motto “ Nada Sobre Nós Sem Nós (Nothing about Us Without Us) , g7+ komesa promove konseitu ida ho naran Kooperasaun husi Estadu Frajil ida ba Estadu Frajil sira seluk. Ohin loron ema seluk iha mundo koalia kona ba Kooperasaun Sul ba Sul nebe refere liu ba nasoens sira iha emisferiu sul (kooperasaun entre paízes em vias de desenvolvimento no sub-desenvolvido), g7+ fiar katak ho Kooperasaun F ba F sei lori benefísiu boot ba nia membrus sira iha áreas tolu: (1) Jestaun rekursu naturais, (2) Jestaun finansas públika no (3) Rekonsiliasaun.
Iha prátika, area rekonsiliasaun nian, pur ezemplu, Timor-Leste nia asistensia ba Guine-Bissau, paíz irmaun ida nebe konesidu frájil tanba konflitu akontese tinan-tinan iha impaktu boot tebes. Liu husi asistensia teknika TL nian iha prosesu rejistu eleitoral nebe lidera husi Sekretariu Estadu Desentralizasaun Tomas Cabral nian, konsege ajuda no lori Guine-Bissau ba dalan loos. Guine-Bissau bele hala’o eleisaun prezidensial no legislativa iha tinan kotuk (2014) ho susesu boot, eleisaun jeral nebe rekonesidu internasionalmente hanesan fair no transparante. Oras ne’e Guine-Bissau hahú sira nia prosesu Peacebuilding no Statebuilding. Nuneé nasaun Guine-Bissau apresia tebes Estadu Timor-Leste nia ajuda iha momentu difísil wainhira komunidade internasional sira tomak fo sansaun ba Guine-Bissau tanba iha kudeta iha Abril 2012.
Iha kontesktu jestaun de rekursu naturais, nasaun Sudaun do Sul nebe foin hetan independensia tinan 4 liu ba, interessadu tebes atu aprende husi Timor-Leste nia experiensia oinsa jere Fundu Petrolíferu tanba Sudan du Sul nia orsamentu Jeral Estadu depende totalmente ba minarai (primeira nasaun ke depende totalmente ba minirai, segundu lugar mak Timor-Leste) iha mundu.
Molok tinan 2014 ramata, Governu Timor-Leste dala ida tan hatudu nia maturidade polítika no solidaridade umana hodi ajuda USD Milaun 2 ba Repúblika Sierra Leone, Guine no Liberia (paízes tolu) nebe enfrentra moras Ebola. Ajuda Timor-Leste nian neé hanesan jestu de solidariedade husi membru g7+ ida ba membru g7+ seluk iha kontekstu F ba F tuir prinsipiu Akordu Foun (New Deal) katak uza sistema paiz nian (use of country system). Sekretariadu g7+ sai hanesan ponte hodi fasilita ajuda umanitáriu husi Governu Timor-Leste ba membrus g7+ sira seluk.
Felizmente, Timor-Leste nia jestu de solidariedade ne’e hetan rekonesimentu husi Presidente Barack Obama nia konseleiru iha White House (Uma Mutin) iha Outubro 2014, nebe apresia Timor-Leste nian esforsu tu ajuda paízes sira nebe enfrenta moras Ebola. Nune’e Timor-Leste sai hanesan úniku País kiik oan ida mak hakarak ajuda rai sira nebe enfrenta dezafius barak entre rai boot sira seluk hanesan, USA, Reinu Unidu, Swedia, Kuwait no Australia.

Konkluzaun

Ho observasaun badak ida neé, ita bele hatete katak iha implikasaun positivu tebes ba Timor-Leste, katak ho orgulho boot, maski Timor-Leste hanesan paíz ida nebe kiik jeografikamente, bele mos influensia mundu nia polítika (shape global policies). Kompromisu boot husi Estadu Timor-Leste ba g7+ kona ba harii Dame no harii Estadu (peacebuilding and statebuilding) sai hanesan instrumentu polítika negósiu estranjeiiru (foreign policy) hodi bele hametin diplomasia no tulun nasaun frájil sira atu sai husi frajilidade no hakat ba resiliensia. Iha bele mos rejista katak :
1. Rekursus finanseirus ho montante USD Milaun 2,5 (aprovadu husi Parlamentu Nasional iha tinan 2014 no 2015 respektivamente ba g7+) atu implementa New Deal no hala’o programa g7+ nian hetan apresiasaun boot husi Membrus g7+ sira.
2. Timor-Leste nian reputasaun internasional nebe rekonesidu ona obriga ita Timor oan atu mantein nafatin paz, estabilidade no seguransa iha rai laran hodi bele hala’o dezenvolvimentu nebe prósperu ba Timor oan tomak.
3. Maske ho dezafius no obstákulus barak, rekursu limitadu, Timor-Leste nia diplomasia no advokasia iha nivel internasional liu husi nia papel iha g7+ konsege hamorin Timor-Leste nia naran iha nivel global.

Ikus mai, embora Governu Timor-Leste preokupa tebes ho dezafius dezenvolvimentu iha rai-laran liu husi alokasaun Orsamentu Jeral Estadu tinan-tinan ba Linhas Ministeriais no Ajensias Autónomas, maibe Timor-Leste mos la taka matan hodi fo tulun nafatin ba rai seluk, inklui g7+
liu husi transferensia públika (ajuda umanitária) hodi onra prinsípiu voluntarismu, solidariedade no kooperasaun hanesan membru komunidade internasional.

***

Artigu neé publika ona iha Jornal Diaria UNTL nian, iha loron Kinta, 15 no Sexta, 16 de Janeiru 2015. Ami hetan lisensa hosi autor atu publika fila fai iha Blog ida neé.

“Servisu Maka’as no Servisu Hamutuk”: Reflesaun badak ida hosi vizita PR ba Komunidade sira iha Distritu Manufahi

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Community Participation, Economy, Sucu, TMR

“Servisu Maka’as no Servisu Hamutuk” Reflesaun badak ida hosi vizita PR iha Distritu Manufahi Introdusaun Vizita ba Suku sira nu’udar prioridade ida hosi Prezidênti da Repúblika, Taur Matan Ruak (TMR) durante nia mandatu. Dezde toma de posse iha Maiu 2012 too agora, Prezidênti da Repúblika, TMR vizita ona suku kuaze 300 hosi suku 442 ne’ebé iha. Pergunta ne’ebé mosu mak ne’e: Razaun saida mak Prezidênti hakarak vizita suku sira ne’e? Objetivu saida mak Prezidênti hakarak hetan hosi vizita sira ne’e? Durante hola parte iha vizita Prezidênti nian foin dadaun ne’e iha Distritu Manufahi, iha mensajem lubuk ida ne’ebé importante atu foti. Mensajem sira ne’e inklui solidaridade hosi Prezidênti da Repúblika nian, motiva povu atu partisipa no servisu maka’as lori atinzi moris diak, servisu hamutuk, unidade, meius ida atu haforsa komunikasaun entre estadu no ninia povu, no seluk tan. Liu tan, Prezidênti mos koalia kona ba dezafiu ne’ebé Timor-Leste, nu’udar nasaun enfrenta hela iha ninia prosesu atu konkista moris diak. Dezafiu sira ne’e inklui ita nia dependénsia ba petroleu, labarik barak ne’ebé sei tur iha rai lori iskola, ita nia infraestrutura hanesan estrada ne’ebé presiza investimentu boot, no dezafiu seluk. Em prinsipu, Prezidênti da Repúblika konsente ho dezafiu sira ne’ebé Timor-Leste, nu’udar nasaun no nuudar povu enfrenta. Maibe mos nia motiva nafatin povu atu iha esperansa katak “loron aban sei iha,” no ita tenki iha konfiansa katak moris diak bele atinzi wainhira ita servisu maka’as no servisu hamutuk. Durante akompanha Prezidênti nia viajem iha Distritu Manufahi semana ida nia laran, iha mensajem lubuk ida ne’ebé relevante ba ita hotu; laos deit ba komunidade ne’ebé Prezidênti halo dialogu ba, maibe mos ba povu Timor tomak. *********** Mensajem primeiru mak agradesimentu hosi estadu ba povu. Prezidênti da Repúblika fiar katak lori povu mak estadu iha. Ida ne’e sai klaru wainhira nia hateten katak “lori imi mak ita harii ita nia nasaun, no lori imi mak ita harii ita nia estadu.” Tanba ne’e, iha fatin-fatin, Prezidênti, hodi estadu nia naran hatoo agradesementu ba povu tanba sira nia luta, no sira nia terus mak Timor nakfila ba nasaun independent no livre. Mensajem segundu mak mensajem solidaridade hosi Xefi Estadu ba povu. Iha fatin-fatin, Prezidênti hateten kona ba ninia objetivu hosi ninia vizita. Hosi objetivu sira ne’e, objetivu importante ida mak Prezidênti mai atu rona no sente povu nia moris, no haree povu nia komportamentu. Ida ne’e mensajem solidaridade ida ne’ebé Prezidênti hakarak hatoo ba povu atu povu labele sente lao mesak, no namlele hela. Solidaridade sira ne’e Prezidênti mos manifesta wainhira nia mos lao ain, rona sira nia preokupasaun sira, no enkoraja nafatin sira atu iha konfiansa nafatin ba futuru. Terseiru, Prezidênti mos uza oportunidade ida ne’e atu komunika ho povu kona ba situasaun nasaun nian. Iha dialogu komunitariu sira ne’e, Prezidênti informa no komunika ho povu kona ba situasaun ne’ebé nasaun enfrenta. Ida ne’e inklui problema estrada, problema be mos, problema malnutrisaun, problema labarik sira sei tur iha rai lori aprende, no seluk tan. Prezidênti mos laos informa deit kona ba dezafiu ne’ebé Timor enfrenta. Kona ba problema estrada ne’ebé ema barak levanta, PR hateten katak povu tenki pasiensia tanba iha Timor laran tomak, Estrada hamutuk kilometru 9000. Ne’e signifika katak se kada tinan ita halo kilometru 100, entaun sei presiza tinan 90 atu hadia Estrada hotu iha Timor laran tomak. Nia mos koalia kona ba ita nia susesu sira ne’ebé ita iha. Sira ne’e inklui asesu ba estrada, prezensa doutor iha sentru saude sira, esforsu komunidade iha fatin seluk lori hadia sira nia moris, no ezemplu lubuk ida ne’ebé mak sai hanesan inspirasaun ba nasaun atu lao ba oin. Prezidenti mos uza ezemplu barak iha rai laran, atu lori fo konfiansa ba komunidade katak wainhira sira servisu hamutuk, sir abele rezolve problema barak iha sira nia suku laran. Ida ne’e importante atu ajuda komunidade sira atu labele haree deit kona ba problema iha sira nia suku no komunidade laran, maibe iha komprensaun luan liu; katak problema hirak ne’ebé sira enfrenta laos existi iha sira nia komunidade deit, maibe mos iha fatin seluk. Ho ida ne’e, Prezidênti husu atu sira mos komprende katak estadu laos haree ema ida mesak ka grupu ida mesak. Ida ne’e ajuda komunidade atu iha sensibilizasaun kona ba moris nasaun nian no responsabilidade ne’ebé estadu asumi. Mensajem importante seluk hosi vizita sira ne’e mak kontinua atu enkoraja povu atu iha konfiansa ba an, no konfiansa ba estadu. Ida ne’e importante wainhira ema komesa sente desperado ho situasaun ne’ebé Timor iha. Prezidênti, liu hosi ninia mensajem nia nafatin enkoraja povu atu iha konfiansa ba lideransa local, Xefi du Suku sira, administrador sira, no servisu hamutuk ho sira. Povu tenki fiar katak “loron aban sei iha” no tenki diak liu. Atu atinzi ne’e, nafatin presiza servisu makaas no servisu hamutuk. Hikis Kosar ba Moris Diak Hikis kosan ba moris diak nu’udar sentru hosi plataforma politika Prezidênti TMR nian wainhira kompete ba eleisaun Prezidênti iha 2012. Ba Prezidênti, maski Timor-Leste hetan ona independénsia, maibe povu Timor seidauk hetan moris diak. Kestaun moris diak ida ne’e nu’udar objetivu ida ne’ebé importante, maski nia sasukat relativa. Katak Timor labele sukat nia moris diak bazeia ba pais seluk ne’ebé hetan ona ukun an ba decade barak nia laran. Maibe iha liafuan simples, Prezidênti hateten katak moris diak katak povu saudavel atu servisu makaas, povu nia oan sira hetan edukasaun diak, povu iha asesu ba servisu saude nian, povu iha asesu ba Estrada atu faan sira nia produtu sira, no seluk tan. Maibe Prezidênti konsente katak atu atinzi moris diak, estadu mesak labele, governu mesak labele, e povu mesak labele. Presiza ema hotu ninia servisu hamutuk. Tanba ida ne’e iha fatin-fatin, Prezidênti husu no enkoraja ema atu servisu makaas lori atinzi moris diak. Hanesan iha fatin barak, Prezidênti dehan “Moris diak la mai hosi lalehan, ka la mai iha bandeza laran.” Iha fatin sira ne’e, Prezidênti ho liafuan simples hateten; “Hau nia tugas seidauk hotu; imi nia tugas seidauk hotu. Mai ita hamutuk, servisu hamutuk no servisu makaas atu hetan moris diak.” Povu mak autor ba Dezenvolvimentu Mensajem sira iha leten, ninia hun iha Prezidênti TMR nia haree kona ba povu. Haree hosi Prezidênti TMR ninia interasaun ho povu, Prezidênti fiar katak povu mak autor ba dezenvolvimentu. Atu povu bele sai autor ba dezenvolvimentu, povu tenki senti katak nasaun ne’e nia futuru iha Timor oan hotu sira nia liman, no tanba ne’e, sira nia kontribuisaun sei mos determina nasaun nia futuru. Atu atinzi ne’e, ema hotu tenki servisu maka’as no servisu hamutuk. Ba ema ne’ebé moris hamutuk ho komunidade durante tempu resistensia, povu mak rekursu importante ne’ebé Timor iha. Ida ne’e mak forma kontribuisaun foun ne’ebé kada Timor oan tenki fo atu atinzi moris diak. Povu laos objetu ba dezenvolvimentu, ne’ebé hein estadu deit ho pasivu deit ba dezenvolvimentu.

Presentation at the Asia Foundation Development Forum: Challenges and Voices for Asia’s Future

Tags

Inequality, Inflation, Petroleum - Dependency, Political economy, Rural-Urban, State-Society Relations, Timor-Leste

Inequality in a Petroleum Dependent Country: A Timor’s Case[1]

 Guteriano Nicolau Soares Neves

First of all, I would like to thank The Asia Foundation for organizing this Forum. My biggest gratitude goes to distinguished audiences for making your busy time available to be here with us. I highly appreciate it as it provides us a rare opportunity to offer different views about Asia’s growth, especially from my country; Timor-Leste. In this golden opportunity, I would like to share a little bit with you about the issue of inequality in my country; a country where I spent most of my life, a country where I grew up with and defines who I am today; a country where, its people have shown their determination to fight against the biggest military force in the region, and are still struggling to overcome the tragedy of the past, and to look forward for a better future.

I come from a country, where perhaps only few of you have heard about; and if you do, perhaps what you have heard is about war, violence, conflict, the poverty, fragility, or failure. It is true that Timor-Leste has been going through difficult time in struggle for independence, and in the process of building its state institutions and develop the country toward better future; a future that everyone is dreaming for. The challenges are indeed, enormous.

But Timor-Leste is not merely defined by the violence, fragility, poverty, failure and other negative notes. Our history of struggle has also taught us about persistence, dedication, heroism and humanism that some of these values defined our collective memory as a nation, and define our character to face today’s challenges. Many of our leaders have given the best period of their life to fight for independence during Indonesian military occupation. Many of our best Timorese gave up their life just to fight for a nation’s freedom.

Hopefully, Timor’s experiences can provide some positive lessons for other countries in the region and in the world.

Talking about inequality in Timor, it is an emerging issue. In my personal interaction with the reality, issues like poverty or inequality, is not something that I know only through news, or political rhetoric, or statistical numbers. It is not only about how many dollars do they make everyday. It is something that I see it, I experience it, and I live with it, and therefore, it builds personal commitment to contribute to transform it, based on my capacity. I encounter it when I see people don’t have access to water, kids travel long-distance to school, farmers travel long-distance to bring their local products to market, and various forms of poverty and inequality.

But one should not treat inequality as merely a product of current policy. Inequality in Timor – Leste is not a product of one single generation; or not merely a product of current policy. It has been there over generations, and the result of various factors and actors at display. And the current economic development model, which relies on Petroleum, and centralized in Dili, obviously will deepen this inequality, if it is not carefully addressed. Therefore it is important to depart from acknowledging that although it is a regional and global issue, when it comes to specific country, context does matter.

During 450 years of Portuguese colonial administration, Timor-Leste was underdeveloped. Many policies were discriminatory, to enforce the ruling class. Popular memory among Timorese is that Portuguese education system was intended only to prepare local people to work for colonial administration, and for those who worked with Portuguese or the generation of kings. Therefore many Timorese who were born during colonialism did not have opportunity to go to school.

During Indonesian military occupation, amid the structural violence, it did expand public service, such as education, health, and build some roads. Many of the roads built by Indonesian are still used by Timorese today. Indonesian administration during Soeharto’s era was centralised in Jakarta; hence, Timorese did not make decision for their own future. When Indonesian military left Timor in 1999, it undertook what was later known proved to be “systematic and structural” destruction campaign, killed more than one thousand people, displaced 80% of people, and destroyed around 80% of basic infrastructure.

UN administration during two and a half years did not change much. It was centralised in Dili, therefore, it reinforced Dili’s position in term of economy. Many international staffs came to Timor, and lived in little boxes, without much interaction with the rest of the economy. They should have done more, given the resources that the international community has and the size of the country.

Therefore, when we talk about Timor’s current challenges; its economic development, its internal dynamics, including inequality, we need to take into account what Portuguese administration, Indonesian occupation, and UN transitional administration left. And secondly, especially at current dynamics, we cannot ignore the impacts of oil dependency, and how it affects different segments of the society.

What I would like to share is how oil affects socio-economic dynamic in Timor-Leste. There are few notes that I can share.

Since 2005, Timor-Leste has received multi-billion dollars from the oil and gas revenues. It also forms Timor-Leste to be the second most oil-dependent country in the world. Around 80% of state’s revenues are from oil, and around 88% of state’s annual expenditure is derived from oil. During the last five to six years, Timor-Leste has experienced significant non-oil economic growth rate; around 10-15%, and in this year, the projection is about 8%. And this economic growth rate is primarily driven by public sector expenditure.

Oil facilitates state to expand its programs; but not the economy. Oil, like other non-renewable resources, has very special characteristics to the economy, and to the society. Oil does not create many jobs as the other sectors. In Timor-Leste, although oil accounts for 80% of the total GDP, the only good thing about oil in Timor’s context is that it provides revenues for the state to implement its programs. So what happens in such structure of economy is that state receives revenues from the oil, but the rest of the economy gets nothing directly. In this context we already see the inequality between state and the society that oil industry has.

Because only state receives revenues, people that have direct impacts are people who work in the public sector or have connection with the public sector. In Timor’s context, it includes public servants, contractors and business sectors, politician, and veterans who get subsidy from the State. Most of these groups are in Dili. As such, this development model benefits Dili, and marginalises the rest of the country. Although other segments of the society also are benefited, but in relative terms, only small groups of people that benefited more than the rest.

It enforces the privilege of the City over the rest of the economy. Many statistics speak for it. Most the public servants, and middle to high level officials are in Dili. Most of private sector employments are in Dili. And most of the companies that provide services like hotel, restaurants, wholesale and retail sectors are in Dili. The rest of the country most of them work in low productivity and seasonal agriculture, involve in small-scale government-funded infrastructure programs, private-house construction, and other self-employment activities.

Another problem with the oil-dependency economy is inflation, especially, when fiscal policy is not well-thought off. Although Timor-Leste experiences high economic growth amid global financial crisis, at the same time, inflation was also high, reach double digit since 2008, and has decreased this year. Many commentators, including World Bank, and IMF agreed that this inflation is due to expansionary fiscal policy. To look specifically, inflation affects poor more than the rich. So, in term of wealth distribution from oil, rich are benefited from the oil revenues, but poor are suffering from the oil boom when the money poured into domestic market. In other words, rich are getting richer, and poor are getting poorer. Worse than that, price of basic needs such as food are the biggest contributor for the inflation.

Oil provides easy money, therefore, makes it easier to spend. But when the money easily spent into the domestic market, it disincentives people to produce. As result, it attracts demand for the imported goods and services from other countries, especially Indonesia. Timor-Leste, last year, suffers more than one billion trade deficits in goods and services. The only significant good that we export is coffee; which some of them get through to the United States. And economically it makes sense, because with the high inflation rate, it is more expensive to produce, than to import. So if the people makes decision based on free market economy, and rational choice based on free market thinking, people are rational. But to think of more sustainable approach, it is a problem. When to frame it in Timor’s context, it means that the rural area, which supposed to be the production base, lost its importance in the economic structure, and the most of money, does not trickle down to local economy.

These challenges are widely acknowledged in Timor-Leste. Many Timorese are conscious about it, so we discuss it in every moment. As it is a complex issue, it takes long-term and holistic approach. It will not be solved through state’s policy alone. State can establish long-term plan, but it requires mobilization of resources from different sectors of the society to achieve it; not only money, but energy, opportunity, knowledge to explore, and knowledge to innovate.

In a democratic society, as everyone is conscious of important roles they played in the past, so as everyone should bear responsibility to the failure of the past. Not only success that belongs to everyone; but also courage to take responsibility of the failure.

I thank you all for your attention, and I am looking forward to have more fruitful discussions.

[1] This topic was presented at The Asia Foundation Development Forum: Challenges and Voices for Asia’s Future. This Forum was organized by The Asia Foundation at San Francisco, on September 18^th, 2014.

Timor-Leste tama ba kategoria tier-2 konaba trafiku-umanu

Tags

EastTimor Human trafficking, Human trafficking in Timor-Leste, Timor trafficking polices, Timor-Leste

Timor-Leste Tama ba Klasifikasaun Tier 2 (Watch List) Konaba Trafiku-Umanu: Diskusaun no Rekomendasaun Ruma

Husi: Flavio Simoes

Introdusaun
Artigu ida ne’e relasiona ho klasifikaun Timor-Leste (sei refere ba oin ho naran TIMOR de’it) nian foin dadauan ne’ebe koloka husi Departamentu Estadu (Department of State) Estadus Unidus Amerika (EUA) iha nia relatoriu relasiona ho krime trafiku-umanu/human trafficking ho titulu Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report 2014 ne’ebe publika iha fulan Junhu nia laran.

Atu informa uluk leitor sira, iha definisaun oioin relasiona ho trafiku-umanu, maibe definisaun ida komum liu iha lian Ingles maka; ‘… an act of recruiting, transporting, transferring, harbouring or receiving a person through a use of force, coercion or other means, for the purpose of exploiting them …’/‘Hahalok ne’ebe relasiona ho rekrutamentu, transportasaun, transferensia no fornese alojamentu no simu ema ida ho forsa, koersaun no meius sira seluk, ho finalidadi atu esplora sira.’

Tuir lei EUA nian, Trafficking and Violence Protection Act of 2000 (TVPA), fo dalan ba Estadu EUA atu klasifika nasaun sira iha mundu relasiona ho sira nia meius, esforsu no vontade politika atu kombate trafiku-umanu. Teknikamente, iha kategoria 4 (ha’at) hanesan tuir mai ne’e;

Tier 1: Nasaun sira ne’ebe kompletamente tuir padraun minimu TVPA nian hodi elimina krime trafiku umanu;
Tier 2: Nasaun ne’ebe la kompletamente tuir padraun minimu TVPA, maibe halo hela esforsu signifikativu atu kombate krime ne’e;
Tier 2 (watch list): Ida ne’e maka kategoria tranzisional ba Tier 3. Ida ne’e hodi klasifika nasaun ne’ebe ho numeru vitima sae ba beibeik, ka nasaun sira ne’ebe la fornese evidensia husi sira nia esforsu atu responde ka la hatudu esforsu atu bele hasa’e ninia kapasidadi hodi kombate krime ida ne’e;
Tier 3: Nasaun sira ne’ebe la kompletamente tuir TVPA nia padraun minimu no la halo esforsu signifikativu ruma atu kombate krime ne’e.

Diskusaun Konaba Signifikativu Husi Kategoria Sira Ne’e no Nia Impaktu Ruma

Husi kategoria sira iha leten, signifika katak Tier 3 maka kategoria ida grave liu iha kategoria sira ne’e hotu, no tuir relatoriu refere, iha tinan 2014 Timor hetan rebaixamentu ba Tier 2 (Watch list) tamba mesmu iha meius barak halo ona, inklui halo prosesu konsultu ho ema-barak liu husi seminariu no workshop barbarak, halo mos ratifikasaun ba konvensaun lei internasional pertinenti ba krime trafiku-umanu, kria esbosu Lei Kontra Trafiku-Umanu desde tinan 2009, halo koordenasaun inter-ajensia kontra trafiku-umanu nsst, maibe Governu Timor-Leste la konsege demonstra aumentu iha evidensia, hodi rigorosamente kombate krime ne’e husi tinan kotuk to’o agora.

Haree husi sorin seluk, autoridadi nasional (inklui autoridadi nasional Timor-Leste) sira bele argumenta katak, EUA (Iha ne’e spesifikamente, Departamentu Estadu) laiha direitu no autoridadi buat ruma atu bele fo kanuru-tohar ba problema interna nasaun seluk nian. Argumentu ida ne’e bazeia ba nosaun estadu soberanu husi teoria klasiku realismu nian, iha ne’ebe estadu nasaun ida nian de’it maka iha direitu prerogativu tomak atu bele fo kanuru-tohar ba nia problema interna sem iha interferensia husi estadu seluk.

Maibe kontrariamente, globalista liberal sira bele mos kestiona katak, sera ke nosaun Estadu Soberanu ne’e sei apropriadamente relevante ho mudansa barak iha mundu? Kelley ho Simmons (2012) argumenta katak, ‘… international relations is all about how states attempt to influence one another’s policies in ways they believe will contribute to their security and welfare’ (Relasaun internasional ne’e la seluk la le’et, relasiona ho oinsa estadu sira tenta atu influensia ba idaidak nia politika, ho maneira ne’ebe sira fiar katak, bele kontribui ba sira nia seguransa no moris-diak). Argumentu ida ne’e refere ba dinamismu integrasaun merkadu no interkoneksaun sosial iha dimensaun barbarak fabrikadu husi fenomena globalizasaun ne’ebe kria interdependensia ida sem presedentes depois de funu-malirin remata. Nune’e signifika katak, sei iha posibilidadi barak no pretestu oioin atu estadu seluk interfere iha Timor nia problema interna, gosta ka la gosta. Ho fenomena sira hanesan ne’e, akademiku barak argumenta katak, teritoria politika, jeografia ne’ebe halo parte iha estadu soberanu nian komesa tohik ona, ou a’at liu, antikuadu ona. Ohin loron, inseguransa iha nasaun ida signifika inseguransa mos iha nasaun seluk. Ida ne’e talves karakteristika foun iha asuntus relasaun internasional ka politika internasional ne’ebe Timor presiza tau-matan ba, espesialmente ho Timor nia involvimentu iha CPLP, G7+ no mos ASEAN mesmu seidauk sai membru.

Husi fali sikun seluk, saida maka autor hanoin sai mos hanesan preokupasaun lejitimada konaba relatoriu ida ne’e maka, wainhira uza perspetiva cetiku no positivista sira, ema bele kestiona kredibilidadi no atualidadi relatoriu ida ne’e. Exemplu, ho metodolojia sa maka relatoriu ne’e halo? No mos, karik ida ne’e bazeia ba situasaun real ou la’e? Autor utiliza argumentu ne’e la’os atu indika katak relatoriu ida ne’e la-kredivel ka la-atual. Maibe, Infelizmente iha ona tendensia no pratika barak, iha ne’ebe nasaun balun uza metodolojia avaliasaun ba nasaun hotu komparativamente ekivalenti sem iha konsiderasaun klean ba kontestu no situasaun real ne’ebe nasaun idaidak infrenta. Entaun, abordajem sira hanesan ne’e mesmu dalabarak bele kria fontes ba informasaun no ho intensaun diak, maibe iha tempu hanesan julga mos ho forma ladun justu, no mos bele estigmatiza nasaun balun. Konsekuentemente, kria mos relutansia no deskonfiansa husi nasaun balun.

Argumentu sira iha leten iha nia validadi bo’ot no sei bele sai hanesan konseitu provokador ba diskusaun klean liu tan konaba kredibilidadi relatoriu ida ne’e em partikular. Maibe, haree fali husi pontu de vista seluk, dalaruma ida ne’e la’os kestaun mesak de’it, tamba preokupasaun bo’ot ida tan maka oinsa atu rezolve nasaun ida labele klasifikadu ba iha Tier 3 wainhira haree ba konsekuensia sosio-politika no ekonomika, liliu ba nasaun ki’ik-oan sira hanesan Timor-Leste. Exemplu, iha tinan barak Timor klasifikadu hanesan Tier 2, maibe husi relatoriu tinan 2014 ida ne’e, Timor kolokadu tu’un ona ba kategoria Tier 2 (Watch list). Ida ne’e pozisaun tranzisional ba kategoria Tier 3 hanesan esplika iha leten. Ne’e teknikamente signifika, se laiha esforsu maximu ne’ebe maka Governu Timor-Leste halo iha tempu tinan-rua nia laran tuir regulamentu ka kriteriu ne’ebe Departamentu Estadu EUA nian, bele afeta rebaixamentu ba Tier 3 iha tinan sira-seluk tuir mai hanesan esperiensia nasaun Tailandia, Malazia, The Gambia no Venezuela ne’ebe foin daudaun hetan rebaixamentu tamba konsideradu la halo esforsu adekuadu atu hadia sira nia sistema kombate trafiku-umanu.

Wainhira ida ne’e akontese maka bele direitamente no indireitamente hatudu ba publiku internasional katak, Estadu Timor-Leste laiha kapasidadi atu bele garante seguransa ba nia a’an rasik, no husik ninia sidadaun no sidadaun nasaun seluk atu sai vulneravel ba trafikante ka kriminozu organizadu sira. Los duni katak, Timor bele halo defeza ba nia a’an liu husi diplomasia ka meius komunikasaun-sosial sira seluk; maibe opiniaun publika dalabarak ita labele kontrola no sai hanesan prejuizu ba imajem nasaun nian wainhira alarga, sa’atan wainhira informasaun sira hanesan ne’e uza husi nasaun-seluk, grupu no individu sira atu bele hatete katak, Timor nia Estadu fraku (ka a’at liu, Estadu falha) atu bele fornese seguransa bazika ba nia sidadaun no ema-rai-seluk. Wainhira ida ne’e maka imajem ida projetadu iha rai liur konaba Timor, bele mos afeta ba progressu iha area seluk. Exemplu, wainhira ema husi liur tetu relatoriu ne’e hamutuk ho relatoriu seluk ne’ebe fo informasaun la favoravel ba Timor, bele afeta mos Foreign Direct Investment (Ivestimentu Estranjeiru Direto).

Liu tan, opiniaun ne’ebe publiku hetan tamba relatoriu sira hanesan ne’e bele sai forti liu wainhira publiku sasin-rasik atendimentu baziku sira ne’ebe la-favoravel atu asegura sira nia protesaun no seguransa bazika. Exemplu, iha parte kontrolu imigrasaun ne’ebe relasiona ho Border Control Management (Jestaun Kontrolu Fronteira)—iha pratika barak ne’ebe maka autor observa no mos informasaun balun ne’ebe halibur, Polisia Imigrasaun iha aerportu, mesmu iha dadus kuaze diak konaba se maka tama no se maka sai, no mos frekuensia ema ida tama sai Timor, maibe ida ne’e deit maka fungsaun ne’ebe sira nia sistema atendimentu fornese, laiha tan relasaun ho informasaun intelijensia ne’ebe krusial ba seguransa nasional. Exemplu, karik ema ida iha intensaun a’at ba Timor ka ema ida iha rejistu kriminal iha liur, no atu mos mai halo aktividadi ilisitu iha Timor, sira sei labele deteta mesmu sira nia sistema baze-de-dadus iha kapasidadi atu kobre informasaun detalhada. Ida ne’e tamba falta koordenasaun entre sira ho instituisaun sira seluk ne’ebe bele fornese intelijensia ba sira, no laiha sistema-baze-dadus ida integradu entre ajensia seguransa sira. Se problema hanesan ne’e deít maka mosu iha aeroportu ne’ebe iha kapital nia-laran, sa’atan husi fronteira maritima no terestre, parese araska tebes ba sira atu halo detesaun no disuasaun.

Exemplu daruak. Karik imigrasaun falha atu deteta ema ne’ebe tama mai atu halo aktividadi ilisitu, entaun ajensia ne’ebe presiza servisu maka’as atu buka informasaun maka ajensia intelijensia nian husi PNTL, SNI (Servisu Nasional Intelijensia) nsst karik nesesaria. Maibe ida ne’e mos sei sai hanesan pontu interogativu bo’ot. Iha ona alegasaun barak katak, ajenti intelijensia Timor-oan sira balun, ema lalika buka hatene sira ne’e intel, sira rasik maka aprezenta sira nia a’an katak sira ne’e intel direitamente no indireitamente. Dalaruma ida ne’e bele los, autor observa katak membru intelijensia sira ba festa, diskoteka ka fatin divertimentu barak, wainhira lanu gosta amostra sira nia pistola no radio, oinsa maka ema lahatene katak sira ne’e intel?

Autor espera katak alegasaun iha leten la’os realidade, eh sei akontese duni, la’os ba membru sira hotu, maibe se ida ne’e maka akontese duni, oinsa ho seguransa ba nasaun? A’at liu tan, ita mos bele haree iha relatoriu husi Departamentu Estadu EUA nian ne’e, iha mos alegasaun katak membru polisia balun mos simu subornu (SUAP) husi fatin sira ne’ebe iha pratika trafiku nian iha ba. Alegasaun ida ne’e los ka la-los, la’os sai hanesan kestaun, saida maka publiku hatene agora maka membru polisia balun mos tama ona kadeia tamba involvidu iha aktu kriminal, ida ne’e bele fo indikasaun forti katak polisia la-metin, membru polisia sira mos bele komete krime.

Ho sistema seguransa ida hanesan ne’e, se’e ema ida mai ho vistu turista maibe ho rejistu kriminal iha nasaun seluk, se’e maka atu bele garante katak ikus mai ema sira ne’e sei la sai trafikante ka involvidu iha aktividadi illisitu sira, no se maka atu bele garante katak krime trafiku-umanu ka trafikante sira agora daudaun laiha Timor? Situasaun seguransa hanesan ne’e maka baibain halo nasaun ida atraiante no penetravel ba kriminozu organizadu sira, inklui kriminozu trafiku-umanu sira.

Situasaun bele sai a’at liu tan wainhira Governu Timor-Leste em jeral no em partikular Sekretaria Estadu ba Seguransa, no PNTL no instituisaun relevante sira, karik la-konsege reforsa ka implementa mekanismu kontrolu no disiplinar (karik iha) ida rigorozu atu bele garante katak ajenti seguransa, membru-governu, juiz, defensor, prokurador, membru governu, autoridadi lokal no komunitaria no lideres veteranus sira sei la sai kliente ba sentru sira ne’ebe deskonfiadu hanesan sentru ba trafiku-umanu, ka la-konsege prevene sira atu simu subornu husi trafikante ka kriminozu sira. Situasaun sira hanesan ne’e maka hamutuk bele fo razaun, la’os de’it ba nasaun seluk, maibe ba mos sidadaun Timor-oan rasik atu deskredibiliza Timor nia seguransa, no internalmente deteriora liu tan situasaun krize-fiar ba autoridadi no politiku sira.

Impaktu Seluk
Alem de impaktu sira iha leten, iha mos sira seluk hanesan: sansaun ne’ebe Timor potensialmente bele hetan wainhira Governu Timor-Leste falha atu bele prevene rebaixamentu kategoria Tier 2 (Watch list) ba Tier 3. Sansaun sira ne’e potensialmente hanesan;
• Governu EUA bele hapara ka dada fila-fali ninia asistensia balun ne’ebe la ho natureza umanitariu no komersial husi Timor-Leste;
• Governu EUA sei la fo fundus atu bele selu fungsionariu publiku sira (karik ida ne’e aplika iha Timor);
• Governu EUA sei la fo oportunidadi atu Timor-Leste partisipa iha programa edukasaun ka interkambiu kultural sira iha EUA; bele signifika laiha fellowship no bolsu de estudu, no estudu komparativu ba Timor-oan sira;
• Konsistenti ho TVPA, EUA sei fo nia opozisaun ba asistensia sira (Exetu ba objetivu umanitariu ka relasiona ho komersiu no asistensia dezenvolvimentu balun) husi instituisaun internasional sira hanesan International Monetary Fund (IMF) no World Bank (Banku Mundial) ba Timor-Leste.’

Ema balun bele argumenta katak, mesmu sira nia nasaun klasifikadu iha Tier 3 (nune’e signifika katak sei iha sansaun husi EUA), maibe sei la nesesariamente afeta sira nia kondisaun sosio-politika no ekonomika, sa’atan wainhira nasaun sira ne’e sosio-politikamente, ekonomikamente no mos militarmente forti. Exemplu nasaun sira hanesan Iraun, Tailandia, Russia, Kuwait, Malazia, Venezuela nsst ne’ebe agora daudaun iha Tier 3 hela. Adisionalmente, ema sira ne’ebe asosia sira nia a’an ho teoria konspirativa bele dehan katak, klasifikasaun ida ne’e bele halo husi nasaun liur atu estraga nasaun balun nia imajem ka iha liafuan seluk, klasifikasaun ne’e politikamente motivadu. Exemplu, kontestualmente nasaun sira ne’ebe diplomatikamente la fo malun diak ho EUA tamba razaun ideolojika nsst, hanesan Venezuela, Iraun no Russia.

Argumentu sira iha leten ne’e iha ninia validadi bo’ot, maibe karik ho mos limitasaun balun tamba haree fali husi sikun seluk, de faktu nasaun balun klasifikadu ona ho Tier 3 signifika uluk ona katak dalaruma nasaun ne’e mos bele hasoru ona problema barak sosio-politikamente no ekonomikamente antes iha sansaun, tamba ida ne’e maka susar ba sira atu bele kombate mos krime trafiku-umanu, liliu tamba natureza krime ida ne’e exiji nasaun sira atu kria esforsu integradu, regional no mos global, nune’e presiza rekursu extraordinariu atu kombate. Exemplu maka nasaun sira hanesan Republika Afrika Sentral, Republika Demokratika Kongo, Guinea Ekuatorial, Guinne-Bissau, Zimbabwe nsst ne’ebe iha mos kategoria Tier 3. Entaun, iha situasaun hanesan ne’e, importante ba nasaun sira ne’e atu mantem nafatin ninia mekanismu ne’ebe diak atu bele prevene rebaixamentu ba Tier 3. Sira sei iha pozisaun ida diak liu wainhira laiha todan adisional husi EUA ne’e, tamba bele deteriora liu tan situasaun difisil ne’ebe sira atualmente hasoru.

Argumentu iha leten bele mos aplika ba Timor ho limitasaun ruma. Ida ne’e la’os atu dehan katak Timor infrenta situasaun grave hanesan nasaun Republika Afrika Sentral, Republika Demokratika Kongo, Guinea Ekuatorial, Guinne-Bissau, Zimbabwe nsst iha lista Tier 3, maibe ho limitasaun no preokupasaun barak ne’ebe Timor iha ona, autor hanoin katak, sosio-politikamente no ekonomikamente sensivel ba Governu Timor-Leste atu prevene Timor tun ba Tier 3.
Razaun Fundamental Atu Kombate Krime Ne’e No Rekomendasaun Ruma Relasiona ho argumentu sira autor demonstra iha leten, dalaruma sira ne’e sei diskutivel bazeia ba konsiderasaun barak tuir evidensia ne’ebe parte pro no kontra bele demonstra. Autor konsienti katak ema balun sei mantem nafatin nia pozisaun katak, sem ajudu husi EUA Timor sei nafatin bele moris diak tamba iha osan-rasik ne’ebe mai husi mina eh katak relatoriu hanesan ne’e bele politikamente motivadu, eh karik Timor iha nia soberania absoluta rasik.

Maibe, problema lolos ne’ebe autor hakarak levanta iha ne’e maka relasiona ho valores fundamental ema nian. Autor hakarak emfatiza katak, krime trafiku-umanu sai hanesan ameasa bo’ot ba direitu fundamental ema hotu nian, tamba ida ne’e maka nasaun hothotu, inklui Timor, iha obrigasaun fundamental no prinsipal tebes atu bele kombate hasoru nia.
Tamba krime ne’e ninia gravidadi, ninia natureza ne’ebe desumanu no violentu (fizikamente no psikolojikamente), krime ne’e ekivalenti ho eskravatura moderna. Krime ne’e kobre vitima sira indiskriminativamente hanesan mos ho terrorismu. Nia la konhese labarik ka ema-bo’ot, feto ka mane, jovem ka katuas-ferik no mai husi rasa ka kor oioin. Krime ne’e komete ho modus-operandi oioin. Exemplu ida pratiku liu maka, iha krime ida ne’e, trafikante sira lohi ka bosok, forsa no rapta nia vitima sira atu bele ba servisu iha kondisaun ne’ebe a’at-liu, no dalabarak forsa feto no labarik-feto barak sai hanesan vitima ba esplorasaun sexual no sai hanesan estratejia politika iha konflitu nia laran.

Kontestualmente, seidauk iha dokumentu no dadus barak produzidu ho metodolojia ida diak iha Timor, hodi prova katak krime trafiku-umanu sae makas, nune’e fo indikasaun katak relatoriu Departamentu Estadu EUA nian ida ne’e bele inkonfiavel. Mesmu nune’e ema ne’ebe hanoin hanesan ne’e, liliu sira ne’ebe iha parte autoridadi nasional, presiza haree katak, seidauk iha mos estatistika nasional ida konfiavel no sinkronizadu, ne’ebe publiku bele refere ba, tantu husi Sekretaria Estadu ba Seguransa, PNTL no mos tribunal sira, atu hatudu kredivelmente katak krime ne’e sae-ka-tun iha Timor, nune’e posibilidadi atu relatoriu Departamentu Estadu EUA nian ne’e atu sai los, sei bo’ot mos hela.

Husi sikun seluk, dokumentu balun husi Fundasaun Alola publikadu inisialmente iha 2004 no husi Relatoriu Departamentu Estadu EUA 2014 ne’e rasik hatudu katak, Timor sai ona hanesan fatin orijem no mos destinasaun ba mane, feto no labarik sira ne’ebe sai hanesan vitima ba trabalhu forsadu no mos esplorasaun sexual. Iha dokumentu rua ne’e, mensiona katak Timor-Leste bele sai hanesan nasaun ida ne’ebe nia ema sira sai vitima ba trafiku feto no labarik-feto sira ne’ebe haruka ba India, Siria, Singapura no nasaun sira seluk iha Azia Sudeste no Mediu Oriente ba servidaun domestika.

Trabalhador feto estranjeiru sira mos sai hanesan vitima ba trafiku sexual iha Timor. Sira ne’e identifika barak husi Indonesia, China no Filipina. Iha Fundasaun Alola nia peskiza 2004 estima katak, iha maximu 115 vitima trafikante husi trabalhador sexu feto sira, ho nasionalidadi hanesan Timorense (0), Indonezia (30), Chinese (35), Tailandesa (30), Filipina (20) no Australiana (0). Numeru ne’e obviamente bele tu’un, no mos bele aumenta mesmu dadus ne’e mai husi 2004. Ida ne’e autor observa tamba, sistema seguransa no mekanismu kombate trafiku-umanu no mos krime-organizadu husi 2004 to’o 2014 mesmu iha aumentu barak, maibe seidauk substansialmente efikaz. Exemplu, mesmu iha ona grupu inter-ajensia ne’ebe halibur organizasaun barak atu responde ba ida ne’e, maibe seidauk hatene lolos se’e maka lidera grupu ida ne’e. Exemplu sira seluk tan maka relasiona ho sistema jestaun fronteira ne’ebe fraku, korupsaun ne’ebe a’as, intelijensia ne’ebe fraku, Lei Kontra Trafiku Umanu ne’ebe seidauk aprova to’o agora nsst.
Adisionalmente husi relatoriu Departamentu Estadu ida ne’e, hatudu katak iha ona indikasaun ne’ebe forti katak, labarik mane no mane adultu sira balun husi Mianmar, Kamboja no Tailandia hetan koersaun atu bele servisu iha ro’o peskador husi rai-liur ne’ebe halo hela operasaun iha teritoriu tasi Timor, iha ne’ebe sira infrenta kondisaun konfinamentu, laiha asistensia medika no mos malnutrisaun.

Iha mos alegasaun barak katak, iha ona aktividadi trafiku umanu internalmente, exemplu husi distritu ida ba distritu seluk. Ida ne’ebe barak liu ema hatene hanesan segredu komum maka trafiku labarik feto sira husi Distritu Covalima mai Distritu Dili, liliu ba objetivu esplorasaun sexual no mos servidaun domestika.

Ohin-loron tuir dadus IOM nian konaba situasaun mundu-raiklaran, liu ema juta 20 iha mundu maka infrenta forma ruma husi krime ida ne’e. Ho razaun sira hanesan ne’e hotu maka krime ida ne’e kontra direitus fundamentais ema-moris nian, nune’e sai hanesan impedimentu bo’ot ba dezenvolvimentu umanu no presiza sai mos hanesan batalha foun ba Timor.
Rekomendasaun Ruma Antes fo rekomendasaun ruma, autor individualmente observa katak, relatoriu ida ne’e sai hanesan estratejia politika externa Governu EUA nian ne’ebe adere ba teoria rasionalista tradisional no mos impaktu sosial. Iha ne’ebe EUA fiar katak, ho meius hanesan klasifikasaun ba nasaun ida nia dezempenhu, bele sai hanesan ‘presaun sosial’ ka ‘koersaun sosial’ ida atu influensia nasaun sira ne’e nia politika interna no mos externa. Exemplu iha ne’e, sira bele uza kategoria TIER 2 (Watch list) ne’e hodi halo-moe (shaming) direitamente no indireitamente, skrutiniza no monitoriza de’it politika Governu Timor-Leste nian hodi kombate trafiku-umanu.

Mesmu sansaun husi EUA ba nasaun Tier 3 sira ne’e dalaruma raru, maibe sira mos fiar katak, nasaun barak motivadu husi insentivu sira hanesan fundus ka ajudu sira ba iha area sosial, politika no ekonomika, nune’e wainhira iha ameasa atu bele hapara insentivu sira hanesan ne’e, sira sei halo esforsu liu husi alterasaun ba politika sira nian atu bele prevene (Bearce and Bondanella 2007; Johnston 2001).

Estratejia ne’e, la’os halo de’it husi Estadu ba Estadu, maibe komum halo mos husi organizasaun intergovernamental ba Estadu sira. Exemplu ONU, IMF no Banku Mundial. Estratejia hanesan dalabarak efikaz tebes hodi influensia politika nasaun barak, liliu iha nasaun ne’ebe adota sistema demokratika. Analitikamente tamba sobrevivensia governasaun partidus politiku sira nian depende tebes ba popularidadi politika no aseitasaun sosial iha rai laran no mos husi rai liur ho limitasaun ruma.

Ho razaun sira ne’e, autor lakohi atu sujere katak, ida ne’e maka sai hanesan ona sasukat ba Governu Timor-Leste atu bele hadia nia politika seguransa nasional hodi kombate trafiku-umanu. Nune’e sujere katak, autor mos reserva ninia cetisismo ba relatoriu ida ne’e.

Saida maka importanti maka, Governu Timor-Leste presiza seriamente kombate krime ida ne’e, tamba krime ida ne’e sai hanesan ameasa ba futuru nasaun nian, futuru ema hotu nian no futuru umanidadi nian. Dalaruma, ema balun bele argumenta katak razaun ne’e idealistika liu, maibe ita hotu labele haluhan katak, ho razaun hanesan maka Timor-oan luta atu kaer kuda-talin rasik. Timor la’os luta kontra kolonialismu tamba razaun katak kolonialismu ladiak ba Timor-oan de’it ou katak liberdadi ba moris ne’e Timor-oan nian mesak de’it, maibe tamba razaun fundamental katak kolonialismu sai hanesan ameasa ba dezenvolvimentu umanidadi tomak. Nune’e duni, sai ona hanesan dever prinsipal ita hotu nian atu bele garante katak, ema hotu iha direitu ba moris, no moris ida dignu, livre husi meius esplorasaun no sofrimentu hotu.

Bazeia ba razaun fundamental hanesan ne’e, iha mos rekomendasaun ruma ne’ebe autor hakarak fo ba partes relevantes sira hotu ne’ebe iha linha-oin atu kombate krime ida ne’e, liliu Governu Timor-Leste. Maibe, autor mos fiar katak iha ona rekomendasaun barak ne’ebe parte sira ne’e simu no mos konfesa katak, Governu Timor-Leste halo mos esforsu barak ona. Autor iha ne’e somente hakarak fo de’it rekomendasaun balun ne’ebe autor observa seidauk sai hanesan atensaun no importansia ba ema barak, maibe konfesa mos katak sei iha limitasaun barak tamba adere liu ba konhesimentu autor nian ne’ebe limitadu mos.

Tuir mai, ne’e maka rekomendasaun sira:

Ida: Ba instituisaun, grupu sosiedadi sivil (inklui igreja katolika no grupu relijiozu sira hotu) no ajenti ka individu sira hotu, liliu Governu Timor-Leste, atu bele halakon tiha hanoin ida katak, meius atu kombate krime ida ne’e presiza rekursu finanseiru bo’ot. Iha ne’ebe de’it, prevensaun ba krime ka prevensaun ba krime ida atu sai bo’ot sempre sai fasil no baratu liu duke atu buka kombate krime ida wainhira sai bo’ot liu ona no ho abut ne’ebe klean;

Rua: To’o ohin loron iha Timor, seidauk iha dadus nasional ida ne’ebe instituisaun, grupu sosiedadi sivil (inklui igreja katolika no grupu relijiozu sira hotu) no ajenti ka individu sira hotu, liliu Governu Timor-Leste, bele uza hodi sai hanesan referensia atu bele kombate krime ida ne’e. Iha inter-agency working group ne’ebe existi, grupus sira iha dadus oioin maibe la sinkronizadu. Governu Timor-Leste, presiza tau atensaun ba ida ne’e, presiza kria metodolojia ida atu bele halibur dadus liu husi peskiza ida lolos no kredivel hodi bele hatene to’o iha ne’ebe ona gravidadi krime ida ne’e, se’e maka sai ona vitima ba ida ne’e nsst. Ida ne’e la foka de’it ba krime-trafiku ne’e hanesan elementu estranjeiru nian, maibe foka mos ba dinamiku krime ida ne’e iha rai-laran, liliu iha area sira hanesan Covalima, Maliana no Oecusse ne’ebe vulneravel tebes tamba besik ba iha area fronteira. Ida ne’e atu bele sai referensia hodi identifika estratejia nesesaria hodi kombate krime ne’e realistikamente mesmu ho meius ne’ebe limitadu.

Tolu: Ba ita hotu atu labele hanoin katak, krime ida ne’e sai hanesan krime ida ne’ebe izoladu (an end in itself). Krime trafiku-umanu iha nia dimensaun no interdependensia oioin. Krime ne’e tuir evidensia ne’ebe iha ona, utiliza mos husi grupu terorista sira atu bele buka osan hodi finansia sira nia meta objetivu. Nune’e duni maka koordenasaun atu bele kombate grupu ida ne’e labele sai de’it hanesan responsabilidadi ajensia ka Governu Timor-Leste nian de’it, maibe presiza iha servisu ida integradu ho instituisaun, grupu sosiedadi sivil (inklui igreja katolika no grupu relijiozu sira hotu) no ajenti ka individu sira hotu, liliu Governu Timor-Leste, no ho mos kolaborasaun transgovernamental;

Ha’at: Ita bele kombate krime ida ne’e direitamente no indireitamente. Exemplu la’os ho de’it kooperasaun interajensia ne’ebe forma husi Governu mesak maka bele kombate krime ne’e. Dalabarak, vitima sira sai vulneravel ba krime ne’e tamba falta iha konhesimentu konaba krime ne’e, tamba exijensia no presaun sosio-ekonomiku, oportunidadi ne’ebe ladiak no mos presaun seluk ne’ebe hanesan. Entaun area sira hanesan parseria publiku no polisia iha area prevensaun ba krime ka protesaun komunitaria sai importante tebes. Liu tan, politika iha area edukasaun no ekonomia nasaun nian kuandu diak, bele mos fo solusaun oinsa atu bele prevene sidadaun sira sai vulneravel ba krime hanesan ne’e. Adisionalmente, autor hakarak emfatiza katak, liu husi edukasaun, Governu Timor-Leste presiza kria mekanismu ida atu bele konsiensializa lalaok krime ne’e ba sidadaun tomak, no ida ne’e mos sai hanesan responsabilidadi instituisaun, grupu sosiedadi sivil (inklui igreja katolika no grupu fiar ka relijiozu sira hotu) no ajenti ka individu sira hotu ne’ebe iha konhesimentu konaba krime ida ne’e;

Lima: Autor esklusivamente hakarak foka ba problema korupsaun. Timor ohin loron infrenta problema korupsaun iha fatin barak. Korupsaun sai mos hanesan fator destrutivu ida bo’ot tebes hodi fo dalan ba grupu krime organizadu sira atu penetra seguransa nasional no sai buras, inklui krime-trafiku umanu. Imajina tok karik PNTL maka iha ajenti barak ne’ebe koruptu, inklui nia ajenti intelijensia sira. Ho eventu foin daudaun ne’ebe publiku hotu sasin ba, hatudu katak PNTL presiza hadia buat barak, liliu presiza hamutuk ho Sekretaria Estadu Seguransa hodi prevene ho sansaun ka pena ne’ebe grave ba membru PNTL sira ne’ebe maka involve iha korupsaun. Governu Timor-Leste em partikular, presiza kria mekanismu sansaun ida diferenti entre ema sivil no sira ne’ebe iha pozisaun atu garante seguransa nasional (inklui membru governu, membru parlamentu nasional, defensor publiku, prokurador, juiz, xefi suku/aldeia nsst) mesmu nune’e presiza tau matan makas mos ba sira nia bem-estar (moris-diak). Korupsaun mos akontese la’os de’it tamba ema ida KANTEN, maibe tamba mos exijensia no presaun sosio-ekonomiku sira mos;

Ne’en: Autor fiar liafuan ida ne’ebe Sir Francis Bacon hanesan filozofu Ingles ida ne’ebe argumenta, ‘scientia potentia est—knowledge is power (1597), signifika katak konhesimentu maka poder. Informasaun maka sai hanesan fonte konhesimentu ba ema nian, no wainhira iha konhesimentu barak tamba informasaun barak halo ema ida bele sai forsa liu tan. Teoria hanesan ne’e aplika mos ba ajensia intelijensia ka ajenti intel sira Timor nian. Nune’e duni maka, Governu Timor-Leste presiza kria mekanismu oinsa atu bele fortalese sira nia kapasidadi, profesionaliza sira nia hahalok no kuda dedikasaun ba sira atu servi ba povu no patria ho lolos. Parte intelijensia sai mos hanesan parte ida sentral tebes iha kombate ba krime sira hotu, inklui krime trafiku-umanu, droga, krime falsifikasaun, terrorismu nsst;

Hitu: Importante tebes atu ator no instituisaun sira hotu ne’ebe involve iha kombate trafiku-umanu ne’e atu hatene ho lolos, saida maka krime trafiku-umanu no ninia dimensaun sira. Iha informasaun balun ne’ebe autor simu husi grupu sosiedadi sivil balun, no mos tuir observasaun balun ne’ebe halo autor halo iha enkontru sira relasiona ho trafiku-umanu. Iha ema barak tebes, inklui mos membru governu, membru polisia no membru parlamentu nasional balun no sira seluk ne’ebe ho papel importante maka la kompriende ho didiak krime ida ne’e nia lalaok, nune’e impede sira atu bele fo pareser no buka dalan ne’ebe realistiku iha kontestu Timor nian. Dalaruma, ida ne’e maka impede tebes progresu ba esbosu Lei Kontra Trafiku Umanu ne’ebe halo kedan desde 2009 maibe seidauk hetan aprovasaun to’o ohin loron. Governu Timor-Leste presiza tau matan makas ba iha area hanesan ne’e, dala ida tan, konsiensializasaun ba lalaok krime ida ne’e importante tebes, liliu ba sira ne’ebe iha pozisaun krusial atu bele kombate krime ne’e;

Ualu: Polisia Imigrasaun maka sai hanesan odamatan primeiru ba imigrante sira atu tama mai Timor. Wainhira sira maka fraku, nasaun no sidadaun mos sai vulneravel tebes ba krime ida ne’e. Mesmu ho kapasidade sistema baze-de-dadus ne’ebe diak, maibe funsaun baze-de-dadus ne’ebe sira halo, la sufisienti atu bele identifika ema ida to’o klean. Imigrasaun, liu husi PNTL no Sekretaria Estadu ba Seguransa presiza kria mekanismu integradu ida atu bele iha mos informasaun intelijensia konaba se’e de’it maka mai iha Timor. Menus liu, Polisia Imigrasaun tenki iha mekanismu ida diak atu bele hatene mos ema ida nia rejistu kriminal wainhira nia naran hatama ba baze-de-dadus. Sistema ida ne’e importante tebes iha prevensaun krime nian wainhira Governu Timor-Leste seidauk bele minimiza emisaun visa turista. Sistema ida ne’e presiza aplika ba kontrolu iha aeroportu, fronteira rai-maran no mos iha area maritima;

Sia: Politika liberalizasaun ekonomika hasa’e posibilidadi ba negosiante no nasaun barak atu progresa liu husi koneksaun transnasional, ideas, trabalhador, komersiu no sira seluk tan. Maibe politika hanesan, wainhira la-kuidadu, kria mos kondisaun barak ne’ebe atrai kriminozu sira atu bele halo aktividadi ilisitu husi nasaun ida ba nasaun seluk, inklui iha area trafiku-umanu. Exemplu, ema sira ne’ebe aplika atu mai halo negosiu iha Timor, depois hetan tiha lisensa ba negosiu, halo fali negosiu kriminal ka ilisitu sira. Autor la’os ema ekonomista, nune’e labele fo rekomendasaun barak ba iha area ida ne’e, maibe autor fiar katak, Governu Timor-Leste presiza haree mos ninia vulnerabilidadi ba krime organizadu liu husi area politika-ekonomika ida ne’e;

Sanulu: Bazeia ba dadus barak ne’ebe autor konsege halibur, iha mos evidensia balun ne’ebe hatudu katak, vitima feto barak maka mai ho istoria iha pasadu sira hanesan, vitima ba violensia domestika no abuzu ka violasaun sexual. Krime hanesan ne’e mos barak iha Timor. Nune’e importante atu Governu Timor-Leste fo ninia seriedadi atu kombate duni krime hanesan. Se’e presiza, fo mos pena ida ne’ebe grave ba krime sira hanesan ne’e.
Relasiona ho rekomendasaun sanulu ne’e, Governu Timor-Leste presiza mos:
* Halo revizaun no implementa duni ho lolos lei sira hotu ne’ebe kontra violasaun ba ema vulneravel sira, inklui feto no labarik-feto sira, no asegura katak ator juridiku sira kompriende sira nia papel hodi halo mekanismu protesaun ba ema sira asesivel duni; no
* Hakbi’it ema vulneravel, inklui feto no labarik feto sira, no programa igualdadi jeneru iha nasaun, atu asegura ema sira ne’e iha asesu ba oportunidadi ekonomiku ne’ebe adekuadu, nune’e hasa’e sira nia posibilidadi forsa atu rejeita lia-bosok husi trafikante sira;
Ikus liu, autor espera katak artigu ne’e bele benefisia maluk leitor sira hotu, no hamutuk ita bele kombate krime trafiku-umanu hodi kria moris ida dignu no diak liu, ba futuru ida dignu no diak liu ba ita nia oan no bei-oan sira.

Autor ba Artigu ida ne’e maka uluk sai hanesan Assessor ba Revizaun Setor Seguransa iha UNDP no mos hanesan Assessor ba Prevensaun Konflitu Komunitaria no Asuntu Jeneru, no Assessor ba Komunikasaun Sosial iha Sekretaria Estadu ba Seguransa.
Artigu ida ne’e reprezenta Autor nia opiniaun mesak deit.

Is Timor-Leste a failed state?

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Timor-Leste

Is Timor-Leste a Failed State?

Guteriano Neves

Introduction
There are numerous challenges that Timor-Leste is facing that people often talk about around the country and widely acknowledged across different spectrum of society. These challenges are not unique for Timor-Leste. However, when it is played down in Timor’s context, they are not as simple as its appear on the surface. It becomes more complicated. These are not the result of solely government’s lacking of coherent and integrated policy, or an already failed-state. These are the product of interactions of various factors and actors in the society. This article takes a look at two issues: institutional issue and petroleum dependency. Rather than viewing it as a product of a failed-state, these are challenges that Timor-Leste is facing.

Is Timor-Leste a failed state?
From 2006 onwards, Timor has been frequently labelled as a failed state. Theoretically, there are some conceptual issues regarding ” a failed state” in the development cycle. Most of the time, this concept is used to categorise many countries, such as Somalia, South Sudan, Congo, Afghanistan, etc that are facing political instability. The tendency is to simplify the complexity that these countries are experiencing. Deploying the term above implicitly implies that there are already dysfunctional state institutions within the society. Furthermore, the concept “failed-state” also implies that building a state and building a nation is a short-term project that can be achieved in certain period of time. As a matter of fact, nation-state building is a complex process, which determined by various factors, not only the state institutions, but also the social interactions and international context.

Specifically for the Timor’s case, most of the argument concentrate on the challenges that Timor-Leste is facing. This includes but not limited to financial sustainability, food security, malnutrition, import dependency, quality of spending, malnutrition, allegation of corruption. While it is important to acknowledge these challenges, the tendency to simplify the challenges that the country is facing and omit its contextual realities, will not be helpful. Therefore, it is important at least to consider contextual setting where these challenges exist, such as its history, politics, economics and social setting that underline these problems. Beyond the surface, these challenges are not something uniquely define Timor as a whole. What unique about Timor is the underpinning factors of these problems that the country is dealing with.

There are certain issues that the government should have responded better. No one denies that. However, there are some issues that require long-term approach, and contribution from different actors. These underlined difficulties are often missing or neglected in the way Timor is described or reported.

For that, one way is to contextualize the discussion on weather Timor is a failed state or not from institutional point of view. Many have discussed about the challenges that institutions are facing. Building institutions is a long-term and dynamic process. Socio-conomic and political setting change over time, and therefore our approaches for building these institutions also should change accordingly. It will be ahistorical and oversimplification to argue that the current institutional problems are merely the result of the current policies. Historical legacies of the Portuguese colonisation, the Indonesian military occupation, and the United Nation Transitional Administration of East Timor (UNTAET) are not to be ignored completely. They are, by all means, the essential rubrics that contribute to the life of most institutions in Timor-Leste today and the way people view the institutions.

Amid these challenges, it is valid to argue that these institutions are not collapsed or dysfunctional. During and after 2006 crisis, many scholars and journalist labelled Timor’s case as a failed state; the reality is that during the crisis and afterwards, the institutions were not collapse or dysfunction. The violence was contained in Dili. Outside of Dili, the people lived normally. When the Prime Minister at that time, Mari Alkatiri resigned, the process went on according to the constitution. FRETILIN retained control over the government and the Parliament until 2007. Amid the international uncertainity about the short-term security, Timorese went to three-consecutive elections in 2007. These elections were internationally recognized as the democratic elections. During 2012 three consecutive elections went on peacefully and democratically, and the power transition went on smoothly.

On the other hand, as a democratic society, discussion on state’s performance should not be limited to the way institutions address issues. One needs also to consider that the state is “an” institution that exists within society. There are numerous institutions that shape the way society is organized, and how individual behaves. Therefore, it is critical also to consider the space for the people to participate and to shape the public policy and development agenda. In this regard, there is relatively an open space for the people to discuss about issues on public policy that has direct impact on their lives. Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs) are playing active roles in shaping public policy discussion, and development agendas. Issues, such as petroleum dependency, import dependency, financial sustainability, transparency, corruption, have also been discussed at different level of discussion. People talk about public matters in the cafe, in the restaurants, in the street, in the community meeting, family gathering, wedding party up to traditional ceremony. Social network like Facebook, and Blog become a venue where people contest government’s program and policies. Politics is everywhere in Timor.

Another issue relates to the discussion on failed state is the relationship between state and the society. While state is new, society is not. The society has been existing for generations, with its own culture, practice, tradition, and structure. There are various factors and actors that are at display. Timor-Leste’s society, although its small, it’s diverse. Some of the challenges are not merely the result of failed-policy by the state, but also the product of social dynamic within society.
If the state is the result of a social contract, as the enlightenment thought goes, then it needs to build its legitimacy from the society, because it is one of the great determinant factor in the nation and state building process. This is a never-ending business, as this interaction between state and society is a dynamic process. As a matter of fact, there are many developing countries that are still facing this similar issues especially, when as the state is perceived as an agent that strengthens social inequalities, failing to provide social services and fails to construct a strong national identity that binds people together, or does not have a common objective that could unite people. As a dynamic process, society’s expectations change over time, therefore the way state institutions address the problems, and and its required capacity to do so is also changing.

Finally, state is not merely a product that consists of institutions. It also depends on the legitimacy from the society. Claiming legitimacy from the society is a continuos process, determined by the ability of the state to address these issues that affect people’s daily lives, to provide service, and at the same time, building a sense of identity that bind Timorese together, and building a sense of ownership from the society. At the end what is most important at this point is that people have have confidence on their future, have ownership for their own future; that their future, and the future of their children will be better off. This, again, of course is not an easy task. It is important to acknowledges that all the challenges are there, as such discussion on these challenges are relevant.

Petroleum Dependency is not limited to state’s finance
Fiscal sustainability is an issue that people is aware of in Timor-Leste. Most parties seem to be agreed that it is a result of oil-dependency and lack of coherent policy to develop non-oil sectors. However, there is a tendency to simplify the petroleum-dependency within the financial sustainability only. The reality is that there are many critical issues associated with the petroleum dependency that reinforce each other in a country where private sector was underdeveloped, and majority of the people are still living in subsistence agriculture. Among them are: vulnerability associated with dependence on a single commodity, low domestic production, state’s – society relations, and the healthiness of a society. These problems are not addressed through discovery of another oil fields, and build another oil industry that dominates the entire economy. Another oil industry; without development of other non-oil sectors, might provide revenues for the state, but it reinforces current development model, which is unsustainable.
Firstly, it is economically not sustainable for any country to depend solely on a single commodity. It is even worse if the source of dependency is to depend on a non-renewable resources, such as oil. Thus, even if Timor-Leste has more oil reserve than it currently has. This would not solve entirely the vulnerability of depending on a single commodity. It places the country in vulnerable position toward the prices of oil at the international market. Therefore, economic diversification for the long-term is an imperative for Timor’s future.

Secondly, oil in Timor was already being explored during an illegal occupation. Therefore, when Timor-Leste finally regained its independence in 2002, there was no much space for Timor-Leste to decide when it should to start extracting the oil resources from its resource. On the other hand, oil money tends to disincentive other non-oil sectors, if the money began to pours into domestic economy in a situation where the non-oil economy is still underdeveloped. The oil money incentivize consumption, and disincentivize domestic production. It attracts imports dependency; e.i. once you have money, it is easier to buy goods and services from the outside, rather than to producing it in domestically. Economically, from cost-benefit point of view, it makes sense, because with high inflation, it is less expensive to import than to produce. This has been the case in Timor’s experience during the last six to seven years.

Thirdly, oil in Timor was already explored during an illegal occupation. When Timor-Leste regained its independence, there was not much space available for Timor-Leste to decide on when it should start extracting resource. When oil money began to enter into domestic market in a condition in a situation where non-oil economy is underdeveloped, it directly or indirectly makes harder for non-oil economy to grow. Oil money incentivizes consumption, and disincentivize domestic production. It attracts imports dependency. Once you have money, it is easier to buy goods and services from outside than to produce it in domestic market. Economically it makes sense to do so. With high inflation, it is less expensive to import than to produce domestically. This has been the case in Timor’s experiences during the last six to seven years.

Moreover, dependence on oil is not healthy for society. Oil is a capital-intensive and not labor intensive industry. Oil does not create as many jobs as agriculture or small-scale industries. There are only a small minority of people that benefits it especially, those are directly connected with the oil industry. In Timor’s case, are the people who connect directly to public sectors. In this case, the contractors, the government officials, and the politician. This does not mean that all of the East Timorese people do not benefit from it; but it in relative terms, elites are the ones benefiting more than the rest of the people. It creates inequality between the poor and the rich, urban and rural, and men and women. There is a small number of people who live in Dili. Oil-dependent economy promotes rent-seeking behavior and rent-seeking activities. As the oil provides easy money, the tendency to spend it is also easily. Once the money is poured into the market through State’s annual budget in big amount – in relative term for the domestic economy – it incentivizes people with political and family connection to involve in rent-seeking activities. These involve obtaining the contracts without proper procurement process, being broker for the foreign – owned contractors, or waiting for public transfers without having to work hard for it. This is not limited to public officials, but it also involves the contractors, interests groups, businessman, as well as society in general.

The whole point is that the issue of petroleum dependence in Timor-Leste is not limited to financial sustainability. Framing the issue in this narrow context open the space to think that finding another oil reserve and build domestic oil production will be the solution for Timor’s economy. However, issues associated with oil-dependency is not limited to financing state’s activities. It is also about vulnerability, healthiness of the society, apt development model, and inclusive development, where it does not only benefit everyone. According to research studies, that are publicly available, oil revenues will continue to decline in the near future. The solution is not only to reduce transfers from Petroleum Fund or discover another oil fields and extracting it as soon as possible. Long-term solution will require investment on more sustainable sectors such as education, health, agriculture, industries that will substitute imported goods and services, and building basic infrastructure.

Conclusion
It is important to acknowledge the the and the complex challenges that Timor-Leste is facing. These challenges, although not unique for Timor-Leste, the context of which these challenges exist are unique in Timor’s own history, social, political and economic setting. Timorese have to live with these challenges and working together to overcome them. Viewing these challenges as the product of social and political dynamic and using these challenges as the basis to claim that Timor-Leste is a failed state is ahistorical, missing the context, and it is an oversimplification of the issue. There is no single solution and short-term approach for these challenges. It will require a holistic and long-term approaches. One thing for sure! At the end of the day, Timor’s infinite resource is not the oil and gas, but its people who have fought with high determination for the independence and who have gone through very difficult circumstances in their lives.

The author is Researcher at the Department of Research and Analysis of Presidency of Republic of Timor-Leste, and 2014 The Asia Foundation Development Fellow.

Agrikultura Orgániku Eskala-ki’ik no nia Importansia ba Timor-Leste

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Agriculture, Economy, Timor-Leste

Agrikultura Orgániku Eskala-ki’ik no nia Importansia ba Timor-Leste

 Maximus Tahu

Introdusaun

Dezeñu ba projetu agrikultura-nian barak iha Timor-Leste refleta idea katak sistema tradisional ne’ebé agora dadaun iha presija hetan mudansa tanba fo rezultadu kolleita ne’ebé ki’ik liu. Espektasaun husi mudansa ne’e katak sistema konvensional sei hasa’e kolleita, hasa’e agrikultór sira-nia rendimentu no hadi’ak agrikultór sira-nia moris. Pergunta ne’ebé mosu mak, konsidera Timor-Leste nia karakterístika geográfiku, ekonomia no sosio-kultural, no mos kondisaun iha merkadu international agora, mudansa ne’e bele fo benefisiu too bainhira. Artigu ne’e se la diskute klean problema sira ne’ebé asosia ho agrikultura konvensional maibé se buka atu fo razaun hodi hatudu katak Timor-Leste sei hetan benefisiu diak liu se Timor-Leste kaer metin nafatin pratika tradisional sira ne’ebé diak no dezenvolve sistema agrikultura orgániku eskala-ki’ik ne’ebé adapta diak liu ba Timor-Leste nia kondisaun. Pontu importante iha artigu ne’e mak diskusaun badak kona ba situasaun global nian relasiona ho agrikultór orgániku eskala-ki’ik, benefisiu ne’ebé Timor-Leste bele hetan husi sistema ne’e no dezafiu balu ba oin.

Agrikultura orgániku eskala-ki’ik iha mundu

Agrikultura orgániku eskala-ki’ik mak sistema agrikultura ida ne’ebé hala’o iha eskala ne’ebé ki’ik no la uja ai-moruk kímiku no reduz uju mákina bo’ot sira. Maski prátika agrikultura tradisional nian hotu konsidera hanesan orgániku, sistema ne’e konsidera ba dahuluk hanesan alternativa ba sistema konvensional, iha rai sira ne’ebé koalia Ingles no Aleman iha fin de sekulu 19 (Vogt, 2007, p. 9). Konseitu eskala-ki’ik la’os deit refere ba toos nia luan. Definisaun los liu, tuir Professor Economia Harvard nian, T.N Carvers, maka toos ne’ebé familia mak hala’o no labele hetan benefisiu husi uju makina bo’ot tanba ki’ik liu (Carvers, 1991). Tanba ne’e sistema ne’e dalabarak ema hanaran sistema orgániku familiar ka bazeia ba familia.

Sistema orgániku ema promove ona desde inisiu sekulu 20 maibé foin iha tinan 1970 hanesan ne’e mak sistema ne’e hahú hetan atensaun maka’as tanba ema nia atensaun ba problema ambiental mos hahú makaas liu tan iha tempu ne’ebá. Hahú husi ne’ebá, kresimentu agrikultura orgániku nian sai makaas liu tan. Iha tihan 1990, area ne’ebé ema kuda ho sistema orgániku hamutuk 11 Millaun hektares deit, iha tinan 2012 sa’e maka’as ba 37.5 Millaun hektares (Figura 1). Pordutu orgániku ne’ebé fa’an iha mundu tomak hetan folin too US$28 Billaun (IFOAM, 2006). Dezenvolvimentu agrikultura orgániku ne’ebé makaas mosu tanba konsumidores sira nia atensaun kona-ba impaktu husi produtu ne’ebé sira konsumu ba sira nia saude no impaktu ba ambiente sai maka’as ba bebeik, no mos tanba governu iha nasaun barak komesa fo suporta maka’as ba sira nia agrikultór orgániku sira (Lockeretz, 2007. p.1).

Figura 1. Kresimentu global rai ba agrikultura orgániku (Fontes: FIBL-IFOAM-SOEL-Survey 1999-2004)

Rezultadu peskiza husi matenek-nain barak hatudu katak mudansa global ba agrikultura orgániku eskala-ki’ik sei kontribui ba hamenus kiak iha mundu tomak, liu-liu iha nasaun sira ne’ebé foin dezenvolve-an. Peskizador rua husi Universidade Essex iha Englatera, Jules Pretty no Rachel Hynes, bazeia ba sira nia investigasaun hatudu katak iha nasaun dezenvolve-an sira ne’ebé numeru ema kiak maka’as, projetu agrikultura orgániku barak hatudu kresimentu kolleita too 93%. Observasaun ne’ebé hanesan fo sai iha relatoriu Organizasaun Nosoens Unidas nian ba assuntu Komersiu no Dezenvovliment (UNCTAD) iha 2013 (Wake Up Before It Is Too Late). Apoiantes agrikultura orgániku eskala-ki’ik sira rekoñese katak iha inisiu, bainhira foin muda husi sistema konvensional ba orgániku, kolleita sei tun uitoan, maibé hafoin tinan balu, kolleita sei sa’e ba bebeik tanba rai komesa rekupera-an no sai bokur liu tan ho pratika orgániku sira. Iha eksperiênsia ne’ebé hala’o husi (Scow et al. 1994) iha toos haat ne’ebé jere ho sistema diferente hatudu katak, hafoin tinan haat, rai iha toos ne’ebé uja sistema orgániku riku liu ho nitrogênio no iha pH ne’ebé konsistente liu kompara ho rai ne’ebé uja sistema konvensional. Hafoin tinan rua, nivel materia organika, fósforo no potássio nian mos aas liu iha rai ne’ebé uja sistema orgániku (Scow et al., 1994).

Nasoens Unidas mos rekoñese importansia husi sistema orgániku eskala-ki’ik. Relatoriu husi Relator Especial ba Direitu ba Ai-han iha 2010 oferese analiza ne’ebé klean no evidensia husi nasaun barak katak agrikultura eskala-kiik ne’ebé livre husi kompañia bioteknologia sira mak sei bele hamenus kiak iha area rural sira. Dependensia ba kompañia sira hanesan Monsanto, Syngenta, Bayern, BASF and DuPont sai kauza lakon bo’ot ba agrikultór barak ona iha mundu tomak. Relatoriu foun liu husi Konferensia Nasoen Unidas nian ba Merkadu no Dezenvolvimentu 2012, Wake up Before It Is Too Late, husu ba mundu tomak atu muda husi sistema konvensional ne’ebé agora domina agrikultra ba sistema ne’ebé sustentavel liu hanesan agrikultura orgániku eskala-ki’ik. Sistema ne’e kontrariu ho sistema industrializadu no konvensional ne’ebé involve produsaun eskala bo’ot no makina bobo’ot sira.

Benefisiu husi Agrikultura orgániku eskala-ki’ik ba Timor-Leste

• Agrikultura orgániku bele hasa’e kolleita hanesan mos agrikultura konvensional, maibé agrikultura orgániku fo benefisiu liu tanba la estraga rai no hadiak rai nia bokur naturalmente.

Hanesan prova ona husi peskizador barak, agrikultura orgániku bele produs makaas hanesan mos sistema konvensional. Problema iha Timor-Leste, sistema tradisional seidauk fo produsaun masimu, maibé la signifika katak sistema tradisional ne’e mak ladiak tanba iha fatores barak mak fo influensia ba kuantidade husi kolleita. Fatores sira ne’e en geral fahe ba: fatores klimatiku, rai, ai-horis, no sosio-ekonomia (Fageria, 1992, p.3). Fatores klimatiku inklui bee, temperatura, no radiasaun solar. Fatores ai-horis inklui ai-horis nia espesies no variedade. Fatores rai inklui fatores kímiku no fíziku sira ne’ebé afekta ai-horis. Fatores socio-ekonomia nian mak hanesan produtu nia folin, efisiensia husi servisu estensaun nian no teknologia ne’ebé iha (Fageria, 1992, p.3).

Fatores sira ne’e hotu fo influensa ba kuantidade kolleita iha Timor-Leste. Estudu ida ne’ebé hala’o husi Thompson (2011) kona ba Timor-Leste nia rai no geologia hatudu katak Timor-Leste iha rai ne’ebé diferente teb-tebes husi fatin ida ba fatin seluk. Estudu ne’e deskreve, bazeia ba mapa rai original Portuguesa nian, katak Timor-Leste iha rai ne’ebé la hanesan maski iha area ki’ik oan ida deit (Thompson, 2011). Variedade ne’ebé makaas fo impaktu ba produtividade ne’ebé la hanesan tanba ne’e presija tratamentu ne’ebé espesifiuku ba rai ida-ida bazeia ba rai ida-idak nia karakteristiku. Fatores klimatika fo impaktu ba kolleita liu-liu tanba mudansa klimatiku resulta iha udan ne’ebé tun la tuir nia tempu no temperatura sa’e ass. Fatores ne’e hetan rekonñesimentu iha Fini ba Moris no Ministeriu Agrikultura nia relatoriu ne’ebé fo sai katak alterasaun klimatika sei afekta setor agrikultura no liu-liu sei hamenus kolleita (Seed of Life, 2010). Fator seluk, hanesan falta de rekursu atu kontrola peste mos sai hanesan fator ida ne’ebé hamenus kolleita. Kazu konkretu ida relata iha La’o Hamutuk nia relatoriu, Valoriza Agrikultór-sira nia Lian no Matenek (Ferreira et al., 2011, p.4).

• Ho area agrikultura nian ne’ebé ki’ik, sistema agrikultura orgániku eskala-ki’ik serve liu ba Timor-Leste. Timor-Leste nia rai maioria foho tanba ne’e importante atu konsentra ba diversifikasaim produtu ne’ebé adapta ba karakteristika rai no topografia Timor-Leste nian.

Organizasaun Nasoen Unidas nian ba Agrikultura no Ai-han (FAO) nia infromasaun iha 2011 hatudu katak Timor-Leste nia total area agrikultura nian hamutuk 360,000ha deit, ne’ebé kompostu husi rai arable 150,000ha, 150,000ha area ho pastagens permamente no prados, no 60,000 ha area ho ai-horis agrikultura permanente (e.g. kafe). Relatoriu husi ADB no UNICEF hatudu katak 24% uma-kain iha Timor-Leste sai nain ba rai ho luan menus husi 0.5ha no 60% iha rai entre 0.5 to 2.0ha (Oxfam Australia, 2008). Bazeia ba governu nia estimatizasaun, kada ema ida iha Timor-Leste iha rai 0.4ha (Oxfam Australia, 2008). Ho area ne’ebé ki’ik hanesan ne’e konsekuentemente produsaun sei ki’ik no se uja sistema konvensional kustu produsaun nian sei aas liu. Ne’e bazeia ba eskala ekonomia nian iha setor agrikultura, katak, kustu produsaun nian bratu liu bainhira area ne’ebé halo luan liu no kustu sei karun liu baihira area ne’ebé halo kiik oan deit. Razaun ne’e mak dudu agrikultór sira iha nasaun ne’ebé ho rai bo’ot hanesan Australia, Estadus Unidus no nasaun sira iha Eropeia muda-an bebeik ba toos ne’ebé luan liu (Hooper, 2002; MacDonald, 2011). Ba Timor-Leste, laiha opsaun atu muda ba rai ne’ebé bo’ot liu, tanba limitasaun iha rai. Tanba ne’e, dalan ne’ebé diak liu ba Timor-Leste mak liu husi diversifika produtu agrikultura bazeia sistema eskala-ki’ik ho dalan orgániku atu nune’e bele hasa’e produsaun ho kustu ne’ebé ki’ik liu. Opsaun ba agrikultura orgániku justu liu ba toos-nain sira tanba sistema ne’e sei elimina no reduz kustu ba ai-moruk kímiku sira no mos makina bo’ot sira. Husi pontu de vista sosial no kultural nian, sistema ne’e sei haforsa kultura servisu hamutuk ne’ebé Timor-Leste iha kleur ona (Ferreira, 2011, p.6) atu nune’e hametin liu tan relasaun entre membru komunidade sira.

Timor-Leste labele kompete ho nasaun bo’ot sira en termus de kuantidade no folin produtu nian maibé Timor-Leste bele kompete liu husi produz produtu ne’ebé iha kualidade ne’ebé aas liu.

Ho rai ne’ebé ki’ik, Timor-Leste susar atu produz produtu iha eskala ne’ebé bele kompete ida merkadu internasional, maibé bazeia ba kondisaun merkadu internasional agora Timor-Leste iha oportunidade diak liu atu kompete se Timor-Leste foka ba produz produtu orgániku. Merkadu ba produtu organik iha Eropeia hatudu kresimentu 6% iha 2012, ho valor too 23 Billaun EUR. Merkadu ai-han orgániku iha Australia kontinua dezenvolve no relatoriu ida iha 2012 husi ‘Biological Farmers of Australia’ relata katak valor merkadu orgániku nian hamutuk 300 million kada tinan, no kada tinan ema Millaun ida iha Australia regularmente sosa produtu ne’ebé kuda ho sistema orgániku. Iha Asia rai 4.0 millaun hektares mak hetan ona sertifikadu orgániku. Iha Estadus Unidus valor produtu orgániku ne’ebé faan sa’e husi 1.0 Billaun iha 1990 ba 26.7 Billaun iha 2010 (Fonte: Organic Trade Association’s 2011 Organic Industry Survey).

Maski iha kresimentu makaas iha toos no merkadu ba produtu orgániku maibé nasaun barak, liu-liu Estadus Unidus no nasaun sira iha Eropeia sei sofre falta iha supply produtu orgániku nian (Organic Monitor, 2014). Tanba ne’e, maski objetivu prinsipal Timor-Leste nia agrikultura maka produz ai-han natoon ba konsumu rai laran, Timor Leste mos tenki haree ne’e hanesan oportunidade ida atu okupa fatin balu iha merkadu internasional ba produtu agrikultura nian. Lee oportunidade iha merkadu internasional importante, laos atu dudu agrikutor sira hodi kuda deit produtu ne’ebé folin diak iha merkadu internasional, maibé atu sai hanesan matadalan ba dezeña industria ki’ik ba produtu agrikultura ne’ebé koresponde ba nesesidade rai laran no mos bele hetan folin diak iha liur bainhira iha surplus. Se agrikultor sira kuda uja sistema konvensional, Timor-Leste nia produtu orijinal (hanesan sabraka) ka produtu sekundaria (hanesan jus sabraka) sei susar atu hetan folin diak iha merkadu internasional (lee: Vantajen komparativu). Kona ba ne’e Timor-Leste bele aprende buat importante rua husi esperiensia ho esportasaun kafe. Ida, desde independesia kafe hetan asesu diak liu ba merkadu internasional, liu-liu tanba Timor-Leste nia kafe ne’e orgániku no kuda husi agrikultór ki’ik sira. Rua, Timor-Leste lakon osan barak husi setor kafe tanba Timor-Leste laiha industria kafe ne’ebé forte iha rai laran.

• ‘Timor-Leste: Nasaun Agrikultura Orgániku’ bele sai hanesan karakteristiku uniku ida iha mundu ne’ebé ai-moruk kimiku sira destroi ona natureza iha fatin barak. Ne’e setor ida ne’ebé bele dezenvolve atu garantia balansu iha ekologia no mos kria oportunidade diak liu atu dezenvolve turismu komunitariu iha area rural, nune’e bele sai hanesan fonte rendimentu adisional ba komunidade sira.

Fatin ida nia karakteristu ne’ebé uniku sai hanesan motivasaun importante ida ne’ebé dada ema atu mai vizita fatin ne’e. Timor-Leste ne’ebé situa besik nasaun rua ne’ebé hetan vizita husi ema millaun ba millaun kada tinan, Indonésia no Australia, tenki iha karakterisku uniku ida ne’ebé sai hanesan ‘pull factors’, fatores ne’ebé dada ema mai vizita Timor-Leste. Fatores ne’ebé ‘dada’ ema ne’e inklui klima, tasi-ibun, fatin nia moos, fasilidade rekreiu, atrasaun kultural no panorama natural (Dann 1977 cited in Beeton, 2006, p.40). Agrikultura orgániku, integra ho turizmu komunitaria ne’ebé oferese oportunidade ba vizitantes sira atu moris no koko esperiensia no kultura lokal bele sai hanesan ‘pull fator’ forte ida ba Timor-Leste.

Agrikultura orgániku laos buat ida ne’ebé foun, maibé “Nasaun Agrikultura Orgániku” buat ida ne’ebé foun ne’ebé bele sai karakterisku uniku ne’ebé bele sai Timor-Leste nia ‘pull factor.’ Karakteristiku ne’e sei fo influensia makaas liu duke hari fatin luxu sira ka hotel fitun lima sira ne’ebé turista sira bele hetan iha nasaun barak. Modelu ne’e mos sei lori benefisiu barak liu ba komuniade sira iha area rural tanba vizitante ka turista sira ne’ebé mai vizita Timor-Leste tanba ‘pull factor’ hanesan temi ona ne’e, sei gasta osan barak liu atu hela iha akomodasaun komunidade nian no sosa komunidade nia produtu sira, duke turista sira ne’ebé mai Timor-Leste tanba fatin luxu sira.

• Agrikultura orgániku eskala ki’ik kontribui ba mitigasaun mudansa klimatika nian. Ne’e kria oportunidade diak liu atu hetan fundu relasiona ho mudansa klimatika ne’ebé bele uja ba proteze ambiente no dezenvolve diak liu tan komunidade nia moris

Setor agrikultura hetan impaktu maibé mos kontribui ba mudansa klimatika. Sistema agrikultura konvensional kontribui bo’ot ba emissaun gases de efeitu estufa ka greenhouse gasses. Relatoriu husi International Trade Centre UNCTAD/WTO no Research Institute of Organic Farming konklui katak agrikultura orgániku mak sistema ida ne’ebé diak liu en termus de mitigasaun ba mudansa klimatika. Konkluzaun ne’e bazeia ba estudu ne’ebé klean ba estudu sientifiku barak. Ba agrikultór sira iha Timor-Leste, adopta sistema agrikultura orgániku eskala-ki’ik signifika katak sira kontribui ba esforsu global hadiak mudansa klimatika liu husi hatun emisaun husi makina bo’ot sira no mos kimiku sira. Ekonomikamente, sei iha oportunidade ne’ebé diak atu hetan fundu husi rai liur ne’ebé relasion ho mudansa klimatika no meiuambiente ne’ebé se uja ho didiak sei fo benefisiu diak ba komuniade.

 Dezafiu no oportunidade

Maioria toos no natar iha Timor-Leste oras ne’e hala’o ho sistema tradisional ne’ebé uja mos prinsipiu agrikultura orgániku balu, maibé too agora kolleita sei ki’ik. Ba apoiantes agrikultura orgániku sira, dezafiu mak atu prova katak sistema orgániku bele hasa’e kolleita no la presija muda sistema oras ne’e ba agrikultura konvensional. Atu atinji ne’e, presija estudu komprensivu kona ba fatores lolos sira ne’ebé afeita kuantidade kolleita iha Timor-Leste oras ne’e. Estudu ne’e ne’e tenki inklui investigasaun kona ba frakeza no forsa iha sistema tradisional nian, mudansa klimatika nia efeitu, jestaun rai no bee, jestaun kuda no kolleita, kontrolu ba duut fuik, peste no moras sira, no mos plantas nia espêcies no variedade. Rezultadu peskiza ne’e tenki sai baze ba implementasaun real iha kampu hodi hatudu katak sistema organiku iha eskala ki’ik bele fo kolleita ne’ebe a’as.

Dezafiu seluk mak merkadu domestiku ba produtu lokal. Bainhira laiha limitasaun ba importasaun produtu ai-han mai Timor-Leste, sei susar ba produtu orgániku lokal atu kompete iha merkadu domestiku tanba diferensa iha folin. Maibé se governu limita importasaun ba produtu ne’ebé bele produz iha rai laran, ne’e se sai hanesan motivasaun atu agrikultór sira produs barak liu tan. Dezafiu importante seluk maka falta de industria ne’ebé forte ba produtu agrikultura nian iha rai laran. Kondisaun ne’e halo Timor-Leste labele hetan hetan benefisiu másimu husi produtu organiku lokal, en termus de hetan folin diak liu iha merkadu no mos kriasaun fatin servisu nian.

 

Konkluzaun

Agrikultura orgániku eskala ki’ik mak alternativa ida ba agrikultura konvensional ne’ebé oras ne’e domina mundu. Sistema ne’ebé bele benifisia Timor-Leste nia agrikultór sira bainhira dezenvolve ho didiak. Sistema adopta ona iha mundu tomak tanba nia benefisiu ba rai no ba meiuambiente en jeral, no mos konsidera hanesan sistema ne’ebé produz ai-han ho kualidade saude diak liu. Benefisiu sira ne’e halo rai agrikultura orgániku nia aumenta luan ba bebeik husi tinan ba tinan. Merkadu ba produtu orgániku nian mos aumenta bo’ot ba bebeik. Sistema ne’e sei benefisia Timor-Leste liu husi hasa’e kolleita ho dalan ne’ebé sustentavel, uju rai agrikultura nian ho efisiente liu, asesu ne’ebé fasil liu ba merkadu internasional, no sai hanesan identidade uniku ida ne’ebé bele dada ema barak mai vizita Timor-Leste no haforsa liu tan turismu komunitaria ne’ebé bele oferese fonte rendimentu ida tan ba komunidade. Sistema ne’e mos diak liu iha kontextu mudansa klimatika nian no livre husi korporasaun bioteknologia sira nia influensia. Dezafiu ba apoiantes agrikultór orgániku sira iha Timor-Leste mak oinsa konvense agrikultór sira no governu katak sistema ne’e mak diak liu ba Timor-Leste tanba sein sira nia suporta, sistema ne’e susar atu realiza. Limitasaun ba importasaun produtu ne’ebé bele produz iha rai laran importante atu fo motivasaun liu tan ba agrikultor sira, no atu hetan benefisiu másimu husi produtu agrikola, Timor-Leste presija iha nia industria rasik ba produtu agrikultura sira.

Hakerek-nain: Maximus Tahu, estuda Produsaun Plantas no Industria Primaria iha University of New England, NSW, Australia

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A Note on Economic Diversification in Timor-Leste

By – Guteriano Neves

Introduction

On 18 and 19 of September 2013, Ministry of Finance of Timor-Leste, together with International Monetary Fund organized an International Conference on Economic Diversification in Dili. This is a critical issue for Timor-Leste, given its excessive dependence on the Petroleum Revenues, and other economic symptoms associated with it.  This conference, at a certain level, indicates that the issue of economic diversification becomes an urgent issue and has received high-level attention. Prime Minister in his speech indicates it as he said “It is our intention – and our unrelenting focus – to wisely use our natural resource wealth to develop a diversified economy and build our beloved nation for all our people.”

The conference brought economic experts and policy practitioners from various countries to discuss the usual issue on how to diversify Timor-Leste’s economy, and create conditions for inclusive and sustainable growth. Most of the issues discussed are not new, at least, at the level of public policy discussion in Timor-Leste. Issues like Dutch Disease, inequality, trade imbalance, structural transformation in the economy, and regional integration have been discussed in Timor-Leste on various occasions. There is no clear policy prescription or remedy for Timor-Leste from this conference. The most important thing is that each country has its own strategy that works in certain context; but might not work in certain context.  Sometimes, the principle of “Trial and Errors” is applied. But this has to be done through proper planning and evaluation mechanism to examine public policies. During the discussions, many experiences have focused on how to increase export through various policy instruments. In Timor-Leste, at least, at this point of time, what is more important is how to develop production base at the domestic level to reduce capital flight from the country.

Timor-Leste: Petroleum Rich or Petroleum Dependent?

The conference draws from the lessons that many natural rich countries in the end get trapped into poverty, low economic growth, high inequality, therefore, development is not inclusive. It is globally accepted that rich in non-renewable resources such as oil, mine, and gas turn out to be curse rather than blessing. Therefore, the question always emerges on how to diversify the economy and achieve sustainable and economic growth. Although it sounds simple on paper, but historically, it has not been so. Still, many countries fail to navigate through it.

In the context of Timor-Leste, the question is “Is Timor-Leste really a resource-rich country?” This might sound like an ignorant question, but is a critical question to avoid being opiated by the current perception. If we go back to the last Timor-Leste’s Development Partners Meeting in June 2013, the Representative of the World Bank in Timor-Leste already reminded us that Timor-Leste is not a natural resource rich country, in terms of its oil reserve.

It is also confirmed by the GNI Per capita and GDP per capita. In terms of GNI Per capita, in 2011, Timor-Leste’s GNI per capita was US$4,288, and US$2,927 is from petroleum. So, with petroleum, we are an upper middle income country. Other Upper Middle Income countries such as Oman which its GNI per capita was US$19,120 or Malaysia’s GNI Per capita in 2012 was US$9,800.   In terms of GDP Per capita, Timor’s total GDP Per capita in 2011 was US$5,176, and US$4,169 is from Petroleum. Compare it with the same countries where Oman’s GDP per capita in 2011 was US$27,015, or Malaysia’s GDP Per capita US$17,143. So, based on known reserves, compare Timor’s GDP per capita and GNI per capita with other upper middle income countries – Timor-Leste’s oil reserve is still way lower than other Middle Income countries.

Thinking that Timor-Leste is an oil-rich country also has detrimental effect for the policy-making in this country. There is a tendency among policy-makers or politicians in the mineral dependent countries and rentier economy that since petroleum sector provides a lot of revenues, they ignore to think creatively on how to develop non oil economy and extracting revenues from domestic economy. This at the end undermine commitment to diversify economy itself. For the society as a whole, having an attitude that this is an oil-rich country will raise a lot of expectations, while ignoring the challenges lie ahead.

The fact that Timor-Leste is dependent on the Petroleum sector is not due to rich in natural resources, but mainly due to the fact that other non-oil economy sectors are not developed yet.  It is true that there might be other reserves yet to be found. But. better public policy should be based on what is already known and not based on what is yet to be known.

Economic Diversification: Why is it Important for Timor?

Economic diversification in Timor-Leste is critical. It is critical because of many reasons. Firstly, economically, it is not healthy for any country in the world to depend excessively on a single commodity. It puts that country into a vulnerable position. Worse situation is dependence on the petroleum. It is non-renewable. Once it is exploited, the wealth will decrease until the point where it is depleted. Its price in the international market is unpredictable. There is a saying among the petroleum economists that “if someone tells you about tomorrow’s oil price in the international market, it is simply a lie.”

Secondly, Timor-Leste’s natural resource is very limited. Timor-Leste is not Saudi Arabia, nor Nigeria. Current known reserves will last through this generation. Even with Petroleum Fund Reserve that it has, if it continues to increase public spending as the trend has been in the last three years, it is more likely to be exhausted faster than expected.

Thirdly, it is critical because Timor’s experiences in the last five years teach us that despite “double digit economic growth,” it does not lead to poverty reduction. Only few people are benefited, and the rest are not. Various accounts have already tried to explain that. Among them are: public spending led growth, trickle-down effect, characteristics of private sector growth, negative growth of agriculture sector, heavy emphasis on physical infrastructure, and Dutch Disease. Timor-Leste’s economic growth bear resemblance to other rentier states where people who are benefited from this growth are those who directly connected to public sector; either as politician, working as public employee, or those who get the contracts from the government. For these reasons, private sector activities are very centralized in Dili. Therefore, the expectation is that if economy is diversified, it will involve more people in the economic activities, and more people will share the growth.

Fourth, economic diversification is also a key to job creation. Timor-Leste has high population growth rate, and around 70% of the population are below the age of 30. But oil industry is a capital intensive industry and not a labor intensive ones. As the Director of the Asia and Pacific Department of IMF stated, “Natural Resources sectors in themselves typically employ very few people, and that the resource is exhaustible.” Timor-Leste’s current employment structure bears similarities to other rentier economy in other countries. In countries where oil industry takes place on shore, other sectors tend to connect directly or indirectly with the oil industry. In Timor, since oil industry does not take place in Timor, public sector functions as intermediary between oil revenues and the rest of the economy. Thus, employment in public sector is relatively high compare to other sectors, and agriculture sector to greater extent is disconnected from the rest of the economy. Since the growing of the private sector so far is dependent on the recycle of petro dollars, and since Timor’s natural resources is limited, diversification is very critical. Under this condition, Timor-Leste is facing a difficult situation. Population is growing, numbers of people enter into job market every year is growing, but current absorption capacity of local economy is very limited.

Get back to the Basic

The discussion so far, especially during this conference, has been on how to diversify economy through industrial policy that is oriented toward export. So the issue now is how Timor-Leste can become competitive in the regional and international market. Policy prescriptions tend to focus more on regional context, and less attention is given to domestic context. While export-oriented policy is good to close huge trade deficit that Timor-Leste is facing and also to earn more foreign currency, it is more important to look at the domestic market as the point of departure, particularly in the context of Timor-Leste.

At present, Timor-Leste does not have a production base. The Government policy has been to inject the capital to improve purchasing power. It is expected that while purchasing power is improved, the demand will rise, and the domestic market will respond to the supply side. Yet, unexpected side of it is that although demand does increase, what happens is that imported goods and services increase. Last year alone, Timor-Leste imported around $670 million and exported only $31 million. It does not include service sector, and goods that are smuggled illegally. Therefore much of the capital injected into domestic market flew from the country.

If Timor-Leste imports many things, it means that there is an available domestic market that Timor-Leste needs to focus on first. Moreover, if there are much capital that flew from the country, why don’t we focus on keeping the capital first, instead of thinking of earning from others? Take an example of bottled drinking water. Many public institutions consume imported water. Why does Timor-Leste not produce it? Or fruit juice is another example. If Timor-Leste imports it, why doesn’t Timor produce it domestically? Export-oriented policy will address this strategy through increasing trade. But to think simply can Timor-Leste reduce the capital flight by producing what it can for the domestic consumption?  Closing trade deficit does not necessarily mean through exporting more, but it also can be done through producing what we can produce. Water, salt, fruit juice, plates, and many basic needs that Timor should have been able to produce.

There are other factors that relates to export-oriented policy. If Timor-Leste focuses on products to export, the question is where the inputs will be from? So far, most of basic needs are imported. Even if there is Foreign Direct Investment on certain industry, it needs to purchase some small inputs domestically. If it is not generated in Timor-Leste, it will push further negative trade balance. Moreover, if the inputs for the production are not domestically generated, such industry will not have wider trickle-down effect. It can create an “enclave zone” where the industry is not connected to the other economic sectors. Therefore, even with the expansion industrial sector, if it is not integrated into the wider economy, it will not be an inclusive growth.

The point is that it is important to get into the basic. Agriculture should be the basis for it. Historically, many countries when they started; agriculture became the basis for the development.

Conclusion

Economic diversification is critical for sustainable and inclusive growth in Timor-Leste. No one contends that and this conference was based on that. The question is how are we going forward from now? From my point of view, we have get to the basics. Thinking of domestic market should be the point of departure. There are many things that Timor-Leste can produce domestically for domestic consumption. This will build the strong foundation for bigger industry and have wider trickle-down effect economically.

Can Timor-Leste Join Commonwealth of Nations?

Josh Trindade

During the visit to New Zealand from 24-27 June 2013, as part of official visit of the H.E President, TaurMatanRuak, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Jose Luis Gutterres expressed in the media his desire for New Zealand to support Timor-Leste’sintegration into (to join) Commonwealth (also known as Commonwealth of Nations) as reported by Radio New Zealand on 26 June 2013. In the same media, H.EJose Luis Gutterres further said that, the Commonwealth is an important forum and will give Timor the chance to express its views and hear what other countries have to say about international issues.This news may raise many questions among those who have little knowledge about what is exactly Commonwealth and more importantly does Timor-Leste eligible for the membership?  If Timor-Leste is eligible to apply for Commonwealth membership, what are the advantages for the country and the population? What are the risks and disadvantages for Timor-Leste to join Commonwealth? 

The Commonwealth is an association of sovereign nations that support each other and work together towards international goals. It is also a ‘family’ of peoples. With their common heritage in language, culture, law, education and democratic traditions, among other things, Commonwealth countries are able to work together in an atmosphere of greater trust and understanding than generally prevails among nations. There are 54 member countries in the Commonwealth (http://www.commonwealthofnations.org/commonwealth/).

Commonwealth members are nations who have experienced direct or indirect British rule or have been linked administratively to another Commonwealth country except Mozambique (joined in 1995) and Rwanda (joined in 2009) (see commonwealth.org).

For Timor-Leste to join Commonwealth, it must fulfil the requirements set out in the Statute of Westminster (1931), the London Declaration (1949), the Singapore Declaration (1971), the Harare Declaration (1991), the Millbrook Commonwealth Action Programme (1995), the Edinburgh Declaration (1997), and the Kampala Communiqué (2007). New members of the Commonwealth must abide by certain criteria that arose from these documents, the most important of which are the Harare principles and the Edinburgh criteria.

Wikipedia described that, Timor-Leste is eligible under the criteria of ‘Perspective Members’, where it says, there are a range of other states that have expressed formal or informal interest in joining the Commonwealth or have merely made enquiries about membership (expressing no view on whether they wish to become members), despite not meeting the Edinburgh criteria as they are now. However, with the criteria being re-examined, they may be inclined to launch membership bids in the future.(See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Nations_membership_criteria#Eligible_states)

Timor-Leste has very good chance and very good reasons to apply for the membership of Commonwealth, because: 1) Legally the RDTL Constitution article 159 recognized English as Working Language in the country. 2) Regionally, Timor-Leste is surrounded by English Speaking Commonwealth members such as Australia, New Zealand, PNG, Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunei Darussalam. Timor-Leste has excellent diplomatic relations with these countries at present. This good relation will only get better if Timor-Leste joins the Commonwealth. 3) Timor-Leste has expressed its interest to join ASEAN (an English speaking regional organization) in which Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei Darussalam are both members of Commonwealth and ASEAN. 4) Timor-Leste has very strong historical links to Commonwealth Countries where during 24 years of struggle against Indonesian invasion, the country received strong support from people in Australia, UK, New Zealand and Canada. Joining Commonwealth means that these ties will be strengthened. 5) Mozambique who is member of CPLP countries already joined Commonwealth, why not Timor-Leste?

Commonwealth has many attractive programmes that are in line with Timor-Leste Government priorities that are set out in Commonwealth in Action. The programmes are Good Offices for Peace, Democracy and Consensus Building, Rule of Law, Human Rights, Public Sector Development, Environmentally Sustainable Development, and Human Development. 

Other advantages for Timor-Leste to join Commonwealth will also strengthenTmor-Leste’s bilateral cooperation with neighbouring commonwealth countries, such as, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, New Zealand, PNG and Brunei Darussalam, in the areas defined in Commonwealth in Action. In addition, Timor-Leste will have access to prestigious universities in English speaking countries, such as, universities in UK,  Australia, NZ, Canada.

There is no risk for Timor-Leste to join Commonwealth of Nations. It is good because Timor-Leste does not have colonial-colonized relationship with United Kingdom or any other Commonwealth member.